Iran and Israel play game of bluff in pursuit of goals, analyst says
Iran and Israel are engaging in a “dangerous game” as the temperature of their conflict increases, an analyst told The National.
“We are in game of bluff in which it is in the interest of the two main players, Israel and Iran, to do the opposite of what they say and to say the opposite of what they do,” said Bertrand Badie, a French academic and Middle East analyst.
“Iran seeks to demonstrate strength in a spectacular fashion while making sure they cause little damage likely to trigger a strong Israeli response,” said Prof Badie, of Sciences Po University in Paris.
“Israel consistently decries Iran’s attacks as life-threatening while also projecting invincibility. Meanwhile, the US says that Iran is serious but it would be even worse if the escalation continues.”
It is a dangerous game of contradictions that creates uncertainty and allows both parties to interpret the situation to their advantage, he said.
On April 1, an Israeli attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus killed two senior army officers, prompting Tehran’s military response on Saturday.
At the start of the Israel-Gaza war, Prof Badie said, Israeli decision-makers may have decided that their response to the October 7 attacks was a pretext to go after Iran and its regional proxies including Hezbollah and Hamas, but that is likely to escalate the danger of region-wide conflict.
“It is in Israel’s interest to play the Iran card, for which there is minimal consensus, as long as it doesn’t go too far in its strikes,” he said.
Prof Badie said “careful interpretation” of tensions between Iran and Israel was needed.
US, British, French and Jordanian assistance, in addition to reports of support from other Arab countries, in destroying Iranian drones on Saturday does not imply a realignment in the region or a new air defence alliance, he said.
“It is a defensive reaction,” said Prof Badie. “The so-called Global South follows diplomatic options that adapt to circumstances.”
The defence of Israel by allied air forces does not mean a new alliance has been created, analyst Bertrand Badie says