Israel pretends to have a strategy but it really has no idea where it’s headed
One Sunday afternoon, my father-in-law was on the Long Island Expressway in the US driving the family to an event. With surprisingly little traffic on what would ordinarily be a congested highway, they were cruising along at a good speed. At one point, my mother-in-law asked: “Dear, do you have any idea where you’re going?” He chuckled and replied, “No, but we’re making good time.”
Everyone laughed. And since that time, “I have no idea where we’re going, but we’re making good time” became an expression used in our family to describe a variety of situations in which people were sailing along blindly and without direction. In some cases, it was harmless. In others, the results were disastrous.
I have used that expression to describe George W Bush’s war in Iraq or Barack Obama’s bombings in Libya. Today, it can also be applied to Israel’s relentless devastation of Gaza and its reckless and provocative confrontation with Iran.
In these situations, and so many others like them, one is reminded of the oft-cited but never-followed “Powell Doctrine”, which in essence cautions against starting a war in which you don’t know the cost, consequences, terms of engagement, or have an end and exit strategy in sight. (Never mind the fact that former US secretary of state Colin Powell himself violated this doctrine in the lead up to the disastrous Iraq war.)
After October 7, in addition to pledging US support for Israel, US President Joe Biden cautioned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu not to make the mistake that the US made after 9/11. He advised Mr Netanyahu not to allow rage to blind him to consequences or violence to create more hatred.
It was Mr Biden’s way of expressing the principles at the heart of the Powell Doctrine. But six months after his caution, it’s clear that Mr Netanyahu didn’t listen and Mr Biden didn’t demand a satisfactory answer.
Israel has killed more than 34,000 Palestinians and wounded more than twice as many. It has destroyed most of Gaza’s buildings and infrastructure, reducing entire cities to rubble. And it has been accused of committing genocide and creating imminent famine. Yet, despite America’s feeble prodding, it continues to provide Israel with support to continue on its way.
Some Israeli commentators are increasingly saying that even with the enormity of the death and destruction their government has created, Israel has lost this war. It hasn’t defeated Hamas. If anything, it has helped to launch Hamas 2.0. A lack of trust towards Israel appears to have increased not only among Palestinians and across the Arab world, but also globally. And Israel still has no idea how this nightmare it has created can end and what advantage has been served by the damage it has done. And yet it continues.
For months now, Mr Biden has been asking Israel my mother-in-law’s question: “Do you have any idea where you’re going?” He framed it differently, asking Mr Netanyahu about his “end game” or “the day after”. But because he didn’t demand an answer or threaten to withhold support unless a satisfactory response was forthcoming, Israel continued speeding along to nowhere.
To change metaphors, the hole got deeper and yet it kept digging. Simultaneous with its relentless assault on Palestinians, Israel has been steadily poking at Iran – with covert assassinations and bombings in the country and provocative attacks against Iranians in Syria – leading to Tehran’s dangerous telegraphed response last weekend and Israel’s reported counter-response. Once again, the question must be asked: “Do you have any idea where you’re going?”
There appears to be a flaw in some Arab thinking about Israel and the US. Too often, certain Arab commentators have assumed that both countries know exactly what they’re doing and have a grand design behind their seemingly irrational actions.
In part, this attitude of projecting rationality on what is objectively irrational behaviour is born of an inferiority
Both Israel and the US act based on little more than the fact that they want to act and have the ability to do so
complex among some people who think this way. It is assumed that the West is smarter than it is and always calculating. This thinking often gives birth to wild conspiracy theories.
In reality, more often than not, both Israel and the US act based on little more than the fact that they want to act and have the ability to do so, with no plan or thought as to the ultimate consequences.
The danger posed by this behaviour, if left unchecked, is clear and leads to the following conclusion: if the US is unwilling or unable to act like the adult in the room and restrain either Israel or itself, then other nations must act.
Instead of letting Israel run amok and allowing its government, and that of Iran, to create havoc and the danger of a wider war in the Middle East, intervention is needed.
Other nations, both in the region and globally, need to ask my mother-in-law’s question: “Do you have any idea where you’re going?” And if a suitable answer isn’t forthcoming, they must demand that the car be stopped and keys surrendered – before we all end up going over the cliff.