SOUTHERN INDIA POSES PROBLEM FOR ELECTION HOPES OF PM MODI
▶ Leader’s Bharatiya Janata Party has historically struggled in five crucial states in the region
As India prepares for the world’s largest elections, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been on the campaign trail in the country’s south as his party bids to secure victory.
India’s southern region consists of five states – Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. Combined, the states have a population of 253 million and elect 131 representatives out of 543 of the Lok Sabha, the lower house of parliament.
Mr Modi has predicted that his ruling Bharatiya Janata Party will win 400 seats.
If his prediction is accurate, it would be only the second time a party has secured more than 400 seats, after the Indian National Congress, the main opposition to the BJP since 2014, won 404 in 1984.
But Mr Modi’s goal relies on winning a significant number of seats in the southern states, away from the BJP’s heartland in northern and central India, which could prove to be a particularly difficult feat.
The south of India has a strong identity, with its own history, culture and language, which has previously affected BJP votes in the region.
“People here will never vote for Narendra Modi, he can never win in South India,” said Mohammad Sarfaraz, 55, from Hyderabad, the joint capital of India’s southern states Telangana and Andhra Pradesh.
“All he knows is to divide Hindus and Muslims.
“People want peace. Government must offer peace and not indulge in politics of religion.”
Mr Modi, who first came to power in 2014 and won by a larger margin in 2019, has his core base in Hindi-speaking economically poorer north India and Central India.
The BJP has used religious sentiments to consolidate its Hindi-speaking Hindu vote bank in a region rife with religious and caste fault lines.
But in the south, the BJP performed poorly in 2019. It won 30 seats out of a possible 131 available across the five southern states.
In the southernmost Tamil Nadu, a crucial state with 39 seats, the BJP failed to win a single seat.
As part of his campaign this year, Mr Modi has visited Tamil Nadu 10 times. He has also used AI to translate his speeches from Hindi to the regional Tamil language.
Despite the increased efforts, experts predict Mr Modi will struggle to make inroads in the state due to his administration’s policies.
The Prime Minister has supported Hindu hegemony. The BJP government has banned beef, popular in Kerala, and objected to students wearing the hijab in Karnataka.
Mr Modi has been accused of continuing to exploit religious tensions during his campaign. While polarisation has worked in the Hindi heartland in previous elections, it has been less effective in the south.
The multi-religious region is home to Hindus, Christians and Muslims, living in relative harmony for centuries.
“The BJP has a huge challenge. One of the reasons is that these are not the states with Hindutva-driven politics. There is no space for BJP’s ideology,” V Narayanan, a political analyst from Chennai, told The National.
“The factors which helped it in the north like religion, are not the issues here.
“The equation between the minorities, particularly Muslims and Hindus is far different here … they speak the local language and there is no big cultural divide.”
The five southern states contribute more than 30 per cent of India’s GDP and are collectively more prosperous than the northern states.
They have a higher literacy rate, a greater per capita income, better health and higher living standards.
Kerala has the highest literacy in India, at 94 per cent. It had the lowest infant mortality rate at six per 1,000 in 2020.
Tamil Nadu has the fourth lowest poverty rate at 4.8 per cent. In January, Karnataka’s unemployment rate was 2.4 per cent – compared to the national average of 8 per cent.
North India, while politically influential, is marred by higher rates of unemployment and poverty. The region also scores poorly on health indexes.
As well as having policies that do not align with those in the south, the BJP must also take on popular regional parties with long histories of success.
In Tamil Nadu, the ruling DMK won 38 seats in 2019. In Andhra Pradesh, the state’s ruling YSR Congress won 22 out of 25 seats.
Mr Narayanan said that local parties tend to have a better understanding of the issues that matter to voters in the region.
“The south is not a traditional BJP bastion and different parties have been ruling and winning, some for more than 50 years,” Mr Narayanan said.
“People think it is inevitable for parties not to be corrupt and don’t mind as long as they are given an easy life to grow.”
In the previous ballot, the Prime Minister’s party won 30 seats out of an available 131 across the five southern states