FOCUS OF SUDAN’S CIVIL WAR SHIFTS TO TWO KEY CITIES IN THE WESTERN REGION
▶ Fighting near El Fasher and El Obeid could mark a turning point in battle between rival generals, say analysts
Sudan’s civil war has shifted focus from the capital Khartoum to the vast nation’s western region, with heavy fighting between the army and the rival paramilitary Rapid Support Forces reported in recent days in Darfur and Kordofan.
A senior UN official said that intense fighting in the Darfur city of El Fasher involved “heavy weaponry”.
Clementine Nkweta-Salami, the UN’s humanitarian co-ordinator for Sudan, said that wounded civilians were being taken to hospital while others were trying to flee.
“I am gravely concerned by the eruption of clashes in El Fasher despite repeated calls to parties to the conflict to refrain from attacking the city,” she said.
“I am equally disturbed by reports of the use of heavy weaponry and attacks in highly populated areas the city centre and the outskirts of El Fasher, resulting in multiple casualties.”
The war in Sudan began in April last year after army chief Gen Abdel Fattah Al Burhan and RSF commander and onetime ally Gen Mohamed Dagalo sought control of the northeast African state.
The war has forced more than eight million people to flee their homes, killed tens of thousands and destroyed much of its infrastructure. It has also created a humanitarian crisis, with the Afro-Arab nation now on the brink of famine.
In El Fasher, the army’s local garrison has been bolstered by thousands of volunteers and allied rebels. The RSF has for weeks laid siege to the city but its fighters have been unable to break through.
In the neighbouring Kordofan region, intense fighting between the army and the RSF has raged since last week around the army-controlled city of El Obeid. Videos posted online showed dozens of bodies from both sides on the streets of El Obeid, which is home to a vital airbase.
El Obeid has seen clashes between the army and the RSF since the start of the war, with the RSF trying unsuccessfully to capture a crucial road linking the city to the capital.
The loss of either El Fasher or El Obeid to the RSF could decide the outcome of the war.
El Fasher is the nation’s largest city after Khartoum. The city has for decades served as a centre for UN agencies delivering humanitarian aid across Darfur, after a civil war in the 2000s displaced about 2.5 million people and killed 300,000, according to UN figures.
“El Fasher falling will be a grand military and political turning point in Sudan and would likely lead to the declaration of a government there that rivals the one led by the army in Port Sudan,” said Osman Mirghani, a Sudanese analyst in Cairo.
“If this happens, the secession scenario will rear its head. If Darfur breaks away from Sudan, that will have ramifications for several neighbouring nations, especially
Chad, because of all the border-transcending tribal links that exist.”
Another Sudanese analyst, retired army official Mohanad Hassan, said that the RSF would face difficulties in capturing the city from the army and its allies.
“That local rebel groups have joined the army made a dramatic difference to the balance of power in favour of the army in this battle,” he said.
“The army and its allies have staged at least 20 attacks
against RSF positions outside the city in the last few days alone.”
Fighting is continuing in the Al Jazirah region south of Khartoum, where the RSF captured the provincial capital of Wad Medani in December in a surprise attack.
“The army and its allies are moving slowly, applying attrition tactics,” said Mr Mirghani.
Efforts from Washington and Riyadh to secure talks to end the war have been rejected by Gen Al Burhan.
In El Fasher, the army’s local garrison has been bolstered by the arrival of thousands of volunteers and allied rebels