MARKETWATCH

Is the current flat classic car market a decline or merely a correction before prices head back up? It’s impossible to predict, but it does mean that collectable Porsches at all price levels are slightly more affordable, David Sutherland concludes

We’re presently in the quiet period of the international classic car auction season. Scottsdale in Arizona in January and Amelia Island in March, the two major early-year sales weekends, are now history, and nothing big happens until late August when anyone who’s anyone in the concours classic world descends on Monterey in California to network at glamorous receptions and perhaps also pop in a bid on something that’ll go for high six or even seven figures.

A good time, then, to reflect on what’s happening in the real world at, let’s say, under £50,000. It seems that Porsches at this level are taking their lead from those that star at the swanky top end sales hosted by RM Sotheby’s, Gooding & Company and Bonhams – and not selling. It’s a buyer’s market, the experts say.

At Historics at Brooklands’ most recent sale, on May 19, 24 hopeful sellers entered their Porsches, expecting between £13,000 (a 1987 944) and £155,000 (a 1989 911 Turbo), but only 11 found a buyer. The cheapest sold was the above mentioned 944 which made £9500 (incl buyer’s premium), and the highest priced a left-handdrive 1970 911T in show condition for £68,320.

‘Porsche has had a terrifically strong market internationally, but now it’s starting to cool, with prices more sensitive, and this is reflected locally,’ commented an Historics spokesman.

The unsold metallic grey 930 Turbo, with 29,500 miles and described as ‘outstanding’, was one of four 930s entered – none of the other three found buyers either. These were a white 1986 car in left-hand drive with 45,400 miles carrying a pre-sale estimate of £72,000–£80,000, a bronze 1980 example with 99,200 miles (£80,000–£88,000) and a 1980 car with 72,579 miles, and which in 1986 had been exported to Australia where it was turned into a 911 Turbo SE, or “Flatnose” lookalike (£60,000–£68,000). In fact this was not the only Flatnose conversion in the sale: a 1979 911SC that ‘at some stage’ but probably in California, had had the nose job; £28,000 to £34,000 was expected of it, but a sufficiently enthusiastic bidder was not present.

A 1990 944 Turbo (£26,000–£30,000) with indeterminate mileage did not sell, nor did a 1988 944 Turbo S (£24,000–£30,000). So to anyone considering selling their blown Porsche at auction, here is some simple advice: keep the reserve realistic, otherwise you’re heading for “DNS” status, which could blight the car and make it even harder to sell thereafter.

The high prices asked for 930s, a turn-off for bidders at the Surrey sale, made the 996 Turbo sold look excellent value for money. A reserve somewhere between £52,000 and £65,000 was too optimistic for the 2006, just 13,300 miles from new 911 Turbo, but a 2003 example with 46,400 miles and carrying a £45,000–£53,000 estimate made £46,412.

This was the sole turbocharged Porsche to sell on the day, and offered an interesting water-cooled versus air-cooled perspective: the 930 is among the most coveted of 911s, but the 996 Turbo, so far lacking collector appeal, is frankly twice the drive, but half the price. If a £46,412 Porsche can ever be called a “bargain”, then this fine looking black over black leather example with full history, and which cost £88k when new, must be it.

The Historics sale provided some interesting snap shots of how the mainstream 911s are performing in the market. Presently the 997-model 911 is being touted as the next big thing, the last “analogue” 911, and with an engine providing a proper Porsche soundtrack. But the 2006 Carrera 4S with a not unreasonable 84,900 miles and ‘an impressive Porsche main dealer and specialist service record’, made only £20,945. That was in fact towards the top of the estimate band, but was £5800 below the “trade” value that price expert Glass’s quotes, and £10,800 below its “retail” price. Perhaps the engine bore scoring and IMS issues that can affect gen 1 997 Carreras are generating buyer caution.

Winding back a generation, the sale showed that ordinary 996s still make ordinary money unless they are one of the more sought after models such as the Carrera 4S. A 2002 911 Carrera Targa in a love-it-orloathe-it Orient Red was presale estimated at £12,000–£17,000 and went under the hammer at £14,560; Glass’s still lists this age of 911, giving trade as £10,510 and retail of £15,120.

Stepping back one more 911 generation left us wondering if the 993 is beginning to lose its added cachet over the preceding 964 and Carrera 3.2. A 1995 911 Carrera 4 in Iris Blue over grey leather, only 80,000 miles, full history and long term father/son ownership – in other words ticking all the boxes – fetched £45,360, while a few lots ahead, a decent 1994 911 Carrera Cabriolet with 88,000 miles and a £37,000–£43,000 estimate sold for £39,200. Neither price seemed runaway bidding to us, probably little if any more than an above average Carrera 3.2 or 964 would make. That said, a 1990 911 Carrera 4 in striking Guards Red, which Historics said was “realistically estimated” (£28,000–£34,000) was a DNS; perhaps the 133,600 miles put bidders off.

If you thought that Porsche 356s had ascended to unattainable prices, the Historics sale put us right to the fact that £50,000 to £60,000 gets you a good, restored example, so long as you’re not expecting a Speedster. A 1962 356B, on which £45,000 had been spent, sold for £56,000 – surely proof that restoration costs might not be recouped when a classic car is sold.

Auction people always warn us not to pick trends out of a single sale, because things can turn round completely at the next one. But one thing’s for sure: if a classic 911 is what you want, the lull, or correction, in the market is making this a good time to buy it.