Worst of the pandemic ‘could be over by autumn’ as cases fall
CORONAVIRUS cases finally appear to be falling in Ashbourne, after the town saw a record spike developing in recent weeks.
The number of positive Covid cases in the Ashbourne South ward reached 60 ahead of the start of last week – the highest rate we have seen in the small urban ward since the pandemic began.
But, as of Monday evening, newly-released figures indicated a fall in new cases.
The latest data shows there have been 51 new cases recorded in the last seven days, up to last Wednesday, which still puts our rolling rate, measured per 100,000 people, at a worryingly high 685.2.
But it had previously been at more than 800.
Most of the town’s neighbouring wards have now started to reflect the national picture, which is suggesting the virus infection rates are starting to fall sharply – but some hotspots do remain.
Among these is the large, rural Ashbourne North ward, which encompasses villages such as Tissington, Kniveton, Brassington and Parwich.
This ward saw 10 new cases recorded in the last seven days up to Wednesday, bringing the total number to 24 - and the rolling rate up to 332.6.
The neighbouring Wirksworth ward also saw a rise, of four cases, to 15 overall, along with Duffield, Quarndon & Kirk Langley and Ambergate, Heage & Idridgehay wards, which also saw small rises.
The Doveridge, Brailsford & Bradley ward, the Mayfield, Rocester & Bramshall ward, the Ipstones, Warslow & Hamps Valley ward and the Ipstones, Warslow & Hamps Valley all saw encouraging falls in the number of new cases.
Looking at the wider picture, the Derbyshire Dales continues to see a rise in cases, although the rate appears to be slowing.
The same goes for the Staffordshire Moorlands, East Staffordshire and Amber Valley.
South Derbyshire and High Peak have seen drops, however, with the High Peak seeing a fall of 157 cases over the last seven-day recording period.
And on a county level, overall cases appear to still be rising in Derbyshire and Staffordshire with 4,112 new cases in the last week for Derbyshire and 4,319 in Staffordshire. However, these represent relatively small increases of 6% and 13% respectively. Despite the improving picture, there is still a need for caution, say Government health advisers, as the latest figures do not account for the last unlocking.
Such infections generally recede in summer, and schools are now off, so there may merely be some respite.
Professor Neil Ferguson, from Imperial College London, believes cases are now “plateauing”.
He is still urging caution as there could be a new peak after lockdown laws were scrapped last Monday. But he stressed vaccines had “fundamentally changed” the equation in combating the disease.
He said: “I’m positive that by late September, October time we will be looking back at most of the pandemic.
“We will still have Covid with us, we will still have people dying from Covid – but we will have put the bulk of the pandemic behind us.”
We will still have people dying – but we will have the bulk of the pandemic behind us.
Prof Neil Ferguson