What EVS need to do

Vi­tal tar­gets to go main­stream

Autocar - - CONTENTS -

Main­stream EV adop­tion will oc­cur when a typ­i­cal elec­tric car costs £27,000, can achieve a real-world range of around 290 miles and can be fully recharged in just half an hour, ac­cord­ing to a new global sur­vey by Cas­trol and par­ent com­pany BP.

It has long been be­lieved that the tip­ping point for the mass adop­tion of elec­tric cars glob­ally will ar­rive only when there are sig­nif­i­cant im­prove­ments to charg­ing times and range, as well as re­duc­tions to the show­room cost of long-range EVS.

Cas­trol says it com­mis­sioned a mar­ket re­search com­pany to in­ter­view 10,000 con­sumers and fleet man­agers in eight coun­tries (China, In­dia, the US, the UK, France, Germany, Nor­way and Ja­pan).

The sur­vey found that the av­er­age global car buyer will not con­sider pur­chas­ing an EV be­fore 2024, with Ger­man, UK and US buy­ers es­ti­mat­ing that they will not be per­son­ally in­ter­ested un­til 2025.

The car buy­ers sur­veyed have an even less en­cour­ag­ing view of when EVS will be­come the main­stream choice. The av­er­age es­ti­mated date across the eight coun­tries was 2030, but Bri­tish and Ja­panese motorists pre­dicted that it would be 2033.

It is prob­a­bly the huge gov­ern­ment sup­port and cen­tralised plan­ning for EVS that has con­vinced Chi­nese buy­ers that EVS will be­come main­stream in 2027. Glob­ally, 71% of fleet man­agers ex­pect most of their pur­chases to be elec­tric by 2030.

The sur­vey out­lined five con­sid­er­a­tions to buy­ing an EV – price, charge time, range, in­fra­struc­ture and ve­hi­cle size/ type – and asked con­sumers and fleet man­agers to rank them in or­der of im­por­tance.

For con­sumers, price emerged as the big­gest con­cern (38%) fol­lowed by charg­ing time (28%) and range (20%). Al­though this may seem con­tra­dic­tory, if fast charg­ing is eas­ily ac­cessed, ul­ti­mate range is not such an over­rid­ing is­sue.

All of the con­sumers glob­ally saw the price of an EV as the num­ber one con­cern, but it was UK motorists who took the hard­est line on cost, with £22,500 the tip­ping point for buyer con­sid­er­a­tion. It was £28,500 in Germany and more than £31,000 in Ja­pan.

Gen­er­a­tions of driv­ers have got used to fill­ing up a fos­sil-fu­elled car in min­utes and, thanks to the rise of diesel en­gines, get­ting 500- and 600mile ranges in that time. In light of that uni­ver­sal ex­pe­ri­ence, the motorists sur­veyed by Cas­trol seem to be rel­a­tively ac­com­mo­dat­ing when it comes to recharg­ing an EV.

The global av­er­age de­sired recharg­ing time was 31 min­utes. In­dian and Chi­nese buy­ers were the most pa­tient (35 and 34 min­utes) and French motorists (27 min­utes) the least pa­tient. UK con­sumers thought 30 min­utes rea­son­able.

Even so, the sur­vey re­vealed that peo­ple thought EVS would go main­stream only when they could be recharged as quickly as con­ven­tional com­bus­tion

Ex­ten­sive anal­y­sis by the SMMT and con­sul­tants Frost & Sul­li­van also shows that a fully zero-emis­sion-ca­pa­ble UK new car mar­ket will need 1.7 mil­lion public charge points by the end of the decade and 2.8 mil­lion by 2035.

Given there are only 19,314 on-street charge points to­day, the huge task re­quires 507 on-street charg­ers to be in­stalled per day un­til 2035 at a cost of £16.7 bil­lion.

For EVS to be main­stream, they’ll need far more range than a Honda E

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