WHO DOES ALONSO HAVE TO BEAT?
Assuming that smart strategy, aggressive driving and slick pitstops get Fernando Alonso into the top 10, he’ll still face a daunting task once he gets there. Polesitter Marco Andretti has been fast and confident running in traffic, as has his temporary Andretti Autosport team-mate James Hinchcliffe, whereas Alexander Rossi has appeared less assured, and Colton Herta and Ryan Hunter-reay have varied.
Chip Ganassi Racing’s Scott Dixon, who will start second, seems to have a car that can run fast alone or trail closely and pass, but the driver who most impressed last Sunday was the 2017 winner Takuma Sato, who will roll off from the outside of the front row. The #30 Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing Dallara-honda was eerily consistent over its qualifying run, but come the afternoon session, when everyone reverted to race day set-ups, he appeared well able to drag past his rivals (even though Sato finished only 26th on the speed charts).
Rinus Veekay is the higheststarting Chevrolet-powered driver in the #21 Ed Carpenter Racing car but, although he’s been looking tremendously brave in traffic, the more consistent driver for the team when in race trim has been
Conor Daly. Still, Veekay should have a fine Rookie of the Year battle with Alex Palou of Dale Coyne Racing with Team Goh, and Oliver Askew.
It’s important not to dismiss Team Penske as having one of its off years, despite its worst average qualifying position since its infamous DNQ in 1995. In previous years, starting at or near the front, The Captain’s cars have generally been set up to run fast in a minimum of dirty air, which has often left the drivers somewhat impotent when handling traffic or running in the wake of a similarly quick rival.
With Josef Newgarden qualifying 13th and his three Indy-winning team-mates starting outside the top 20, it forces all of them to run more downforce from the word go, which could serve them well if the track gets hot and slick, and should help reduce the lateral slip that is expected to wear out the tyres faster this year due to the weight of the aeroscreen (see page 18).
The same is true for Ed Carpenter, who couldn’t get near Veekay’s qualifying pace and initially was some way off Daly’s race trim pace. But the only driver/owner in the field is a wily and experienced pilot at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway,
and so even in one of those rare years when he isn’t starting from the front row he may be able to produce the goods.
Of course, extra downforce means extra drag, which may be more of a hindrance for Chevrolet runners such as
Penske, Arrow Mclaren SP and Ed Carpenter Racing if the advantage that Honda showed at 1.5-bar turbo boost on Fast Friday and throughout qualifying is maintained at 1.3-bar in the race. But practice suggests that any edge the HPD units have is reduced to near negligible at the lower boost level. And it’s been interesting that when average speeds over a 30-lap stint have been gauged throughout practice, the Penske cars – and in particular, Will Power’s – have regularly featured at or near the top of the table.
Still, however good their handling and however gentle their cars are to the Firestone tyres, Power, Simon Pagenaud and Helio Castroneves have a steep mountain to climb right from the drop of the green flag.