Opinion: Alex Kalinauckas

After the team’s victory at Paul Ricard – its third in a row – there’s a strong momentum building, promising a championship fight that will run to the wire

“This is a statement result, Mercedes defeated where it was previously untouchable”

“This circuit, it’s been such a stronghold for Mercedes over recent years. If we can beat them here, then really we can beat them anywhere.”red Bull team principal Christian Horner was pretty bullish ahead of the 2021 French Grand Prix. And he had every right to be. Max Verstappen had just inflicted a first qualifying defeat on the Black Arrows at a track where Mercedes had taken two poles, won both races and led 105 of the 106 racing laps since Paul Ricard returned to the Formula 1 calendar in 2018.

The first two French GPS since 2008 were awful. But the race just gone was very good. Not an all-time classic, but compared to what had come before it was a thriller. And this time it was Horner’s squad that triumphed in a race upended by a bold strategy call. Before last weekend, Red Bull’s results at Paul Ricard were second and fourth in 2018, and fourth and 10th a year later.

So, with Verstappen’s victory ahead of Lewis Hamilton secured, how does Horner’s pre-race claim stack up when considering the rest of the 2021 campaign? This is far from the first sign that Red Bull is a genuine title threat this year – Mercedes has been saying so since testing. After those three days in Bahrain, Red Bull claimed pole for the season opener (which it should really have won), triumphed in the wet at Imola, and split the two Mercedes in Portugal. Although Mercedes has six wins in the past eight years in Bahrain, the track is not exactly a fortress for the team, as the abrasive surface causes so much difficulty for the rear tyres.

Imola and Algarve are relatively open, form-wise, with both of F1’s leading teams showing strongly across the races held at these venues in six months straddling 2020-21.

But Barcelona is something else entirely, with Mercedes boasting a near-perfect record in the V6 era (spoiled by that crash in 2016), which it extended with Hamilton’s charging, two-stopping win nearly seven weeks ago. Yet Red Bull was very much in contention and might have won had both its cars been in the lead fight. That Mercedes stronghold was very much shaken.

At that event, F1 2021’s flexi-wing saga kicked off, with wing performance a key part of the title fight so far, especially at the two street circuits that preceded Paul Ricard. Both teams have swapped wing designs and downforce variations around in a bid to gain an edge or solve car weaknesses at certain tracks.

Red Bull has now secured a real statement result, by defeating Mercedes where it was previously untouchable, and doing so on the weekend where new wing-deflection tests were introduced (both teams still tested different wings and settings throughout Paul Ricard practice) and after its Baku tyre blowout misery. In doing so it netted a first F1 victory hat-trick since 2013.

Mercedes is currently just ahead in Autosport’s supertimes calculations, which are impacted by the Monaco and Baku Q3 red flags stopping both it and Red Bull from challenging for pole, but it reckons Red Bull maintains a slight pure-pace advantage. Verstappen’s Q3 errors at Imola (running wide) and Algarve

(track limits) also hinder Red Bull’s true supertimes position. “I think we’re lacking a bit in qualifying,”says Mercedes director of trackside engineering Andrew Shovlin.

Red Bull is combining pace with strong development within the very limited scope of the 2021 rules, particularly with its varying downforce packages. A lower-downforce approach with the rear wing introduced in Baku helped Verstappen keep the Mercedes drivers at bay during the critical early laps on the hard tyres in what would become his second of three stints last weekend. Now it heads to home ground in Austria, where Mercedes’historical form is patchy. Red Bull is also the most recent winner at Silverstone, and the Hungaroring’s technical nature should favour it too.

After the summer break, Red Bull’s progress will face further key tests at Spa and Monza, as these have typically started a lateseason run in which Hamilton has been amazing. But, in between, the power of a first home race for Verstappen at the returning Dutch GP should not be underestimated. And, after the final European triple-header, Sochi shares track characteristics with the Baku circuit where Red Bull dominated pre-tyre blowouts.

Speculation over how the rest of season will even ultimately be scheduled is unwise given the fluctuating nature of the pandemic. But, even with Singapore gone and uncertainty surrounding its own stronghold events in Mexico and Brazil, nothing on the run-in should scare Red Bull now. It won’t have it easy – Mercedes and Hamilton are too good and too close to winning the races that Red Bull has taken so far – but something is building. A prolonged, twoteam title fight is finally likely to play out over the rest of the season.

Red Bull has the momentum. Its car tweaks are working. It’s pressuring Mercedes into mistakes. Now it must press home every advantage. It needs Sergio Perez to continue delivering strong performances in the lead fight, and it needs the clinical Verstappen of lap 52 of the French GP to be dominant, and not let the wayward Verstappen of the first corners reappear…