2018/19 predictions for Premiership How will Bath fare?
Our Head of Sport, Daniel Evans, runs the rule over Bath Rugby and their Premiership rivals, and how he predicts the final table might look come May...
Another Premiership campaign is almost upon us and it promises to be a cracker.
Will the superpowers be on the wane? Will mid-table teams be pushing for the play-offs? And where will the promoted Bristol Bears finish under Pat Lam? The lower play-off and Champions Cup qualification places in particular are likely to be very competitive. With Bath Rugby’s opening match at Ashton Gate coming tomorrow, here’s how I think the table will look at the end of the regular season...
12 Worcester Warriors
Always a dangerous side on their day, but the Warriors haven’t strengthened enough to move up, rather than down from their 11th place last year. David Denton and Will Spencer moving to Leicester Tigers will be a big loss to their pack and the likes of Bristol, Harlequins and Northampton Saints all look in better shape. They should pick up some scalps but I can’t see them winning enough games to survive the drop. ■ Key man Jono Lance – The flyhalf will need to get what can be a dangerous backline firing.
11 Harlequins
Quins have had a coaching overhaul with Paul Gustard leaving his defence role with England to take charge. He’s already brought in a giant bear to symbolise his defensive ethos. Pre-season results haven’t been great but the London club should tighten up throughout the season. Strength in depth is always their biggest problem. When the likes of Chris Robshaw, Danny Care and Mike Brown get called up for England they struggle and lose pace with the top-half clubs. ■ Key man Danny Care – Had a superb start to the domestic season in 2017/18. His pace, skill and vision will be crucial again.
10 Bristol Bears
Promoted Bristol’s biggest problem has always been that they haven’t been able to defend well enough on their return to the Premiership until it’s too late. This time, knowing they were going to be back in the top flight early due to there being no Championship play-off should mean they are better prepared. They have some class players, such as Charles Piutau and Steven Luatua, but will their front five be good enough for a top-half finish? I fear not. ■ Key man Ian Madigan – There will be a lot on the Irish fly-half’s shoulders, especially when the going gets tough.
9 Sale Sharks
When everyone is available, the Sharks will have a very dangerous backline – one of the best in the league. However, Chris Ashton will be missing the first six Premiership games with a ban for a tip tackle and Faf de Klerk – their best player last season – will also miss that period while he is away with South Africa. That could leave them with some catching up to do but they do have the potential to make the Champions Cup places. ■ Key man Faf de Klerk – Dictates the pace of the play and tees things up for the danger men outside him.
8 Northampton Saints
The Saints appear to have recruited well. The likes of Dan Biggar, powerhouse winger Taqele Naiyaravoro and James Haskell should all strengthen the squad after a very poor campaign. The question will be how quickly the new squad, led by new director of rugby Chris Boyd, will be able to nail down their gameplan and gel together. Saints should be very tough to beat at Franklin’s Gardens and may well finish higher. ■ Key man Dan Biggar – If the Wales fly-half can soar at Saints, they could be a dangerous outfit once again.
7 Newcastle Falcons
The Falcons were the surprise package of last season’s Premiership; finishing fourth and losing in the play-offs. On paper, their ins and outs seem to balance themselves out. The Falcons will still be good at home and pick up points on the road, but the teams they pipped to the play-offs last season should all be stronger. Dean Richards’ men also have six Champions Cup matches to factor in for a change, which might take their toll. ■ Key man Gary Graham – When fit, the back-rower is an all-action force in the Falcons pack.
6 Leicester Tigers
The Tigers’ focus has been to bolster their pack. In come Dave Denton, Will Spencer, Guy Thompson and a front-row cohort. However, Thompson has already suffered a long-term injury and Ellis Genge will miss a significant portion of the season. If the Tigers backs can stay fit and click they are a dangerous unit, but that has been an issue in recent seasons and they have suffered from not getting great ball. ■ Key man George Ford – didn’t have a great first season back at Welford Road. Will be interesting to see how he dovetails with Matt Toomua and Kyle Eastmond.
5 Gloucester Rugby
The Cherry and Whites should be much stronger this season. They’ve beefed up their pack with recruits from South Africa and brought in Danny Cipriani to run the show at ten. You know what you get from Matt Banahan on the wing, too. The question will be consistency, as ever, with Gloucester. They can beat any team on their day but always seem to throw in some clangers throughout the season. If Wasps miss Cipriani and Gopperth as much as they might, I can see Gloucester making the play-offs. ■ Key man Danny Cipriani – can the midfield magician work his magic at Kingsholm, as he did at Wasps?
4 Bath Rugby
I’m yet to see a predicted table from a journalist, critic or pundit which puts Bath in the top six, let alone the play-offs. However, they should be better and more consistent than they were last season; finishing sixth. They’re starting the campaign with more fit players and their biggest squad in years. Yes, there are key absentees such as Anthony Watson and Beno Obano but overall, with new attack coach Girvan Dempsey in place, they are well-equipped to get into the play-offs. ■ Key man: Dave Attwood – The powerful lock has already shown in pre-season what Bath missed while he was injured.
3 Wasps
With Danny Cipriani gone and Jimmy Gopperth out for six to nine months with a ruptured ACL, I am very tempted to move Wasps down the table. They also have the smallest squad and academy in the Premiership, so could struggle with the strain of Champions Cup rugby. However, they still have talent throughout and firepower to burn. If they don’t lose many more players through injury, they should make the play-offs. ■ Key man Lima Sopoaga – in the absence of Cipriani and Gopperth, the pressure will be on for a storming debut season.
2 Saracens
The champions three times in the past four seasons don’t get any weaker. With their academy production line, they only needed to bring in three players, so the continuity will be good. Sarries might drop points during international periods, when they lose half their pack, but will still be the team to beat for any potential champions. ■ Key man Billy Vunipola – The giant number eight has had a torrid time with injuries but is crucial to Sarries’ and England’s cause.
1 Exeter Chiefs
A consistent, happy, stable club. Wales wing Alex Cuthbert is the only player in for Rob Baxter’s men but not much change was needed. They will be very tough to beat at Sandy Park again and should be good enough on the road to top the table and make a third successive Premiership final. Will they have improved enough to topple Saracens, though? ■ Key man Joe Simmonds – After a breakthrough season it will be interesting to see the fly-half continue to flourish into a top-class operator. Overall champions - Saracens They might not top the table in the regular season but when they have their best players available they will take some stopping again.