Local economy off pace for past 20 years, study shows

NORTHERN Ireland’s economy has been lagging consistently behind the UK’s as a whole over the past 20 years, figures have shown.

Local output took a major hit last year with the loss of tobacco giant JTI Gallaher’s and tyre-maker Michelin, which both shuttered major operations in Ballymena.

However, separate figures on companies show they are making more sales than ever at home, generating £46.7bn in 2018 — the highest revenues since 2011.

Despite that, a more gloomy picture emerges from regional figures about economic performance for the past two decades published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

Senior economist Dr Esmond Birnie (right) said the figures showed the local economy was persistently behind the UK.

There have been a number of attempts at kickstarting growth in recent years, including a move to rebalance the economy away from the public sector and towards the private sector.

There have also been long discussions over the devolution of corporation tax powers.

In the year the Good Friday Agreement was signed, Northern Ireland’s gross domestic product per head of the population was 79.3% of the UK average.

In 2007 it grew to 82.1% of the UK average, falling again to 80.6% of the UK average last year.

Dr Birnie said that the ONS report was “bad news” in the run-up to Christmas”.

“It perhaps re-emphasises the point that the real political challenge is not simply to restore devolution but to reform the machinery of government and to choose policies which are actually appropriate so as to promote better economic performance,” Mr Birnie explained.

The latest figures have Northern Ireland’s GDP at just under £49bn, or £25,981 per head in 2018. This was a 0.5% fall in real terms from 2017.

The ONS has issued statistics for the fall in GDP in each district council area.

They show that the largest decline, at 10%, was in Mid and East Antrim, where Michelin and JTI Gallaher’s operations were located.

Meanwhile, sales by companies in Northern Ireland were £68.4bn in 2018, an increase of 3.5% over the year, according to the Broad Economy Sales and Exports Statistics.

Sales at home hit £46.7bn, up 5.7% over the year and the highest level since the survey started in 2011.

Sales to Great Britain, meanwhile, decreased by £1.1bn to £10.6bn, down 9.3%

Sales to markets outside the UK, which are classed as exports, increased by £837m (8.1%) over the year, to £11.2bn.

Sales to all markets outside Northern Ireland fell by £241m (1.1%) to £21.7bn — the second consecutive year of falling external sales.

The fall was driven by a decline in the category of food, beverages and tobacco — a category which will have been hit by the closure of the Gallaher’s factory.

Exports to the Republic of Ireland increased by £330m (8.6%), to £4.2bn.