Mark Gardiner
This month: From nd a bland conference centre in Montreal, Bike’s USA correspondent reports on the future of motorcycling. It might not have the glamour of a new model launch, but it’s just as important.
Imagine a world where bikes know where cars are coming from, and vice versa. A world where there are no traffic jams, far fewer collisions and no filthy smog. In this building a very different future of motorcycling is being created. And it’s got an awful lot going for it, especially for bikers…
THE automobile ITS WORLD companies Congress such is part as Honda trade and show, Toyota, where familiar and suppliers such as Bosch, show off their latest self-driving projects. Lesser-known companies that make everything from computer chips to the cameras used in autonomous vehicles vie for attention. Meanwhile upstairs, hundreds of technical sessions take place over four days. It’s Glastonbury for the nerds working on next-gen autonomous automobiles and connected traffic systems. Sessions have cryptic titles such as 5G in ITS: Powered by Satellite Communications. But this year, for the first time, there was also Utilizing V2X to Create the Future of Connected Motorcycles. And there was a booth introducing thousands of car guys and computer geeks to the Connected Motorcycle Consortium (CMC). It’s about time. Several major car makers formed the Car 2 Car Communication Consortium in 2002, visualizing a future in which every vehicle continuously communicated its position, vector and basic intention to others nearby. Car 2 Car’s goal was to radically cut road accidents and smooth traffic. Imagine rush hour flows that resemble the movements of a school of fish, not the stop-and-go wheezing of an out-of-tune accordion. That vision is science, not science fiction. Every major car maker and tech giant such as Google and Apple have invested billions of dollars, Volkswagen of Literally connectivity euros, every have pounds (for new promised example car and on yen their the relaying to drawing vehicles make drivers it board happen. will information offer is self-driving. the first about stages accidents truly self-driving ahead) by car 2019. by 2020. Renault Tesla say claim they many will offer of their their cars first already have the hardware for fully robotic operation, ie they only need a software update to enable it. Governments, including the European Union and UK, are loathe to over-regulate this new area for fear that if they do they’ll stifle R&D and drive away jobs. Even accounting for car makers’ optimism you’ll share the road with robots in a decade or less. To ensure a place for motorcycles in smart traffic, BMW, Honda and Yamaha formed the CMC in 2015. The group agreed to share information and liaise with the auto industry to ensure we can safely share the road with other autonomous vehicles.
Let’s start with the bad news…
Last year a Tesla operating on its highly-touted ‘Autopilot’ setting smashed into a biker on a Norwegian A-road. That prompted a complaint from Norsk Motorcykkel Union. Meanwhile in California a guy named John Lenkeit threatened to upset the apple cart. Lenkeit’s an engineer whose company tests Advanced Driver Assistance Systems for the U.S. National Highway Transportation Safety Administration. (ADAS refers to features such as Automated Emergency Braking and Adaptive Cruise Control.) Lenkeit happens to also be an avid motorcyclist who, on his own initiative, decided to use his Honda VFR800 instead of the usual automobiles as a test target. Current Teslas and all other cars with ADAS rely on direct sensors – a suite of cameras, radar and lidar all connected to a powerful computer – to identify vehicles and road features. Those line-of-sight systems struggle with motorcycles because bikes are smaller than cars, operate in-between lanes and appear suddenly in unexpected places. Lenkeit found that the handful of state-of-the-art cars he tested were far less likely to ‘see’ his VFR than, say, a Honda Accord. He presented his results at a conference in Germany. While he was careful not to name the specific automobiles he tested, his results supported the findings of the German Federal Highway Safety Institute, which specifically investigated Teslas. The Germans concluded the company had wildly overpromised the ability of existing Teslas to drive themselves.
‘Sorry mate, I didn’t see you’
The good news is, everyone at the ITS World Congress is certain that by equipping vehicles with a low-power vehicle-to-vehicle
radio (‘V2V’, either operating on a dedicated 5.9GHZ frequency or sharing the 5G mobile phone band) we can constantly share basic safety messages that will allow vehicles to anticipate and avoid collisions, at ranges of hundreds of meters, even around corners. Autotalks, a small company based in Israel, have developed a motorcycle-specific V2V chipset that’s been demonstrated on a Ducati modified by Bosch. This system would, for example, warn you of a car about to enter the road from a hidden driveway. And BMW’S demonstrated a system that prevented a BMW car from turning across the path of a similarly-equipped GS. Since motorcyclists are about 15 times as likely to be killed or injured in a collision, we stand to benefit more than anyone from V2V systems. At least, that’s the vision of the CMC. KTM, Kawasaki, and Suzuki, as well as ACEM – the European Motorcycle Constructors Association – have since joined the original members. As a first step each member has set a goal of at least one connected model by 2020.
Reaching critical mass
A handful of Cadillac CTS automobiles in the United States, a few thousand Toyotas in Japan and a number of on-road test vehicles are already equipped with V2V anti-collision systems. But, one thing is certain, they won’t prevent many accidents until the majority of other vehicles are similarly equipped. Technocrats at the ITS World Congress talk about the rate of ‘fleet replacement’ and acknowledge that existing vehicles will be part of the traffic mix for decades. Reaching that critical mass means retrofitting existing vehicles. The first aftermarket V2X system for motorcycles is already in development by Smart Turn Systems, a Slovenian company. At the ITS conference there were a number of discussions that touched on both carrot and stick incentives to encourage drivers and riders to equip existing cars and motorcycles with V2V systems. For example: favourable congestion-zone pricing bands for V2V equipped vehicles.
Will Big Brother be watching?
Data privacy is, obviously, a concern. Motorcyclists ask, ‘Will the cops just mail me speeding tickets after analyzing my data?’ One US Department of Transportation official told me, ‘Basic safety messages are a hi-tech version of a constantly beeping horn saying, “Here I am! Here I am!” Within a few milliseconds, they’re either used by another vehicle or they just sort of go away.’ Connected autos will give up some control in cooperative traffic systems. For example, when merging or negotiating roundabouts cars will speed up or slow down to optimize flow for everyone. Right now, the CMC envisions scenarios in which motorcycles will carry a radio beacon and may have some kind of onboard warning system, but the hope is that cars will adjust to us, not the other way round. The killer app for motorcycles is… not killing motorcyclists.
Let’s finish with the good news
The CMC believe millions more people would like to ride but fear motorcycles are too dangerous. Technology exists today that promises to reduce car/motorcycle collisions. That represents a huge commercial opportunity for the motorcycle industry, as soon as enough vehicles are equipped with V2V systems. In the longer term two other trends from the ITS World Congress promise to boost the motorcycle industry. The first is the notion of ‘Mobility as a Service’ – Uber is the tip of that iceberg. The second important trend is a focus on so-called ‘first-mile/lastmile’ transportation solutions. If either or both of these things develop the way ITS experts expect them to, they will create a market for millions of autonomous single-person vehicles. If you’re reading Bike you probably don’t love the idea of commuting in a bland pods. But remember the money Soichiro Honda made selling Honda Cubs funded the development of Mike Hailwood’s six-cylinder GP racer, and the CB750. So sure, check the EICMA coverage to see the bikes you’ll ride in the next year or two. But the technology that will shape the next ten or 20 years in motorcycling was on display in Montreal.
‘Millions more people would like to ride but fear motorcycles are too dangerous. Technology exists today that promises to reduce collisions’