Brexit D-Day sees huge rise in regional exports

ASHARP upturn in exports has been reported by manufacturers in the West Midlands. Almost half (48 per cent) of the manufacturers surveyed in the Quarter 4 Business Report, produced by Greater Birmingham Chambers of Commerce with Birmingham City University, reported rising sales, compared to just 24 per cent in quarter three.

And 36 per cent said their order books had increased in the past quarter, compared to 29 per cent in the previous quarter. The rise in sales and orders is believed to be linked to the UK’s looming exit from the European Union, with non-UK manufacturers desperately trying to beat the departure deadline.

Raj Kandola, senior policy and patron adviser at the chamber, said that manufacturers, including the car industry, were trying to beat Brexit in case of any no deal chaos at Britain’s ports and airports.

Some manufacturers in the car industry have announced intentions to bring forward their annual shutdown to coincide with Brexit.

Mr Kandola said: “Much has been said about what might happen if there is no-deal. No-one knows with any certainty what the outcome will be but business hates any kind of uncertainty and is clearly putting ‘Plan B into action now, just in case.

“It would be churlish to downplay the impact that a disorderly Brexit could have on the regional economy and the country as a whole.”

Mr Kandola added that for manufacturing and service sectors combined, the overall rise in export sales was the highest recorded since the beginning of 2017. He added: “In total, 37 per cent of firms in the two sectors combined revealed an uplift in overseas sales, a 14 per cent increase compared to the previous quarter’s figure of 23 per cent. We also saw a two per cent decrease in the number of firms reporting a drop in their international output compared to quarter three, down from ten per cent to eight per cent.”

The other key feature of the Quarter 4 statistics is an increase in the service sector’s workforce which contrasts with a decline in the fortunes of the region’s manufacturers.

The survey found that 38 per cent of service sector employers reported a growth in their workforce, compared to 29 per cent in quarter three.

Among manufacturers, only 18 per cent reported an increase to their labour force, down from 42 per cent in the previous quarter.

Chamber chief executive Paul Faulkner said: “The results from the Quarterly Business Report are a testament to the continuing durability of businesses in Greater Birmingham. Domestic demand remains high, export levels saw a welcome recovery and it was pleasing to see an increase in the number of firms investing in their businesses.

“While we saw a slight fall in recruitment levels, price pressures slightly eased and once again, profitability and turnover projections remain strong as our firms continue to thrive in such testing circumstances.

“Looking ahead to 2019, it is clear we are entering into a crucial period of our country’s history. The outcome of Brexit negotiations are likely to shape the economic and political frameworks of the United Kingdom for years to come.”