Is Corbyn now the key for Remain?
IF your top priority is stopping Brexit then your best bet now seems to be Labour. But the party aren't doing a great job of getting that message across. And campaigners against Brexit seem reluctant to admit it too.
Labour is now firmly signed up to the idea of holding a second referendum on Brexit, in which one of the options will be to cancel the whole thing.
They don't, however, seem to be getting much credit from the people who worked so hard to force Jeremy Corbyn to adopt the policy.
Why is voting Labour a better bet than voting for one of the parties that seem more committed to the idea of a second referendum?
The answer is simple – once the next general election takes place, whenever that may be, we'll have either a Labour or a Conservative Prime Minister.
The Green Party and the Lib Dems back a second referendum, and if they have plenty of MPs in the House of Commons then that helps the remain side.
But the truth is that, even in these unusual times, the smaller parties and their MPs have very limited
power, especially if the election delivers a government with a healthy majority.
It's true that Labour leader
Corbyn had to be dragged kicking and screaming to his current position.
The Lib Dems say “bollocks to Brexit”, making it pretty clear where they stand, but Corbyn's Labour Party prevaricated and dissembled.
Back in January they proposed an amendment which called for the House of Commons to hold a vote on whether there should be a second referendum.
But at the same time, they said that this didn't mean they actually wanted another referendum – they simply supported the idea of MPs holding a vote.
It was this sort of triangulation, attempting to placate supporters and opponents of Brexit at the same time, that made some people so angry with Corbyn.
He once promised “straight talking, honest politics”, but on
Brexit he was as slippery as an eel.
That, however, was then. Things have changed, albeit because of the efforts of people who were widely criticised by the Corbynite faithful.
Labour Deputy Leader Tom Watson, MP for West Bromwich East, and Jess Phillips, Labour MP for Birmingham Yardley, are among those who called for the party to get off the fence and back a referendum.
Their efforts didn't go down well with some of Corbyn's supporters, who seemed to think it as all a cunning plan to undermine the Labour leader. The People's Vote campaign, which organised marches and demonstrations backing a second referendum, also came under fire.
For example, pro-Corbyn journalist Owen Jones complained that “whatever the rights and wrongs of a second referendum, the official People's Vote is an absolute disaster, has undermined the case for another vote, and if there is one and they run the Remain campaign, we might as well chalk up a second Leave victory now”.
But the People's Vote, Mr Watson and Ms Phillips and all those people on Twitter using the #FBPE hashtag (follow back, pro-Europe) have won.
It wasn't Corbyn's most vocal supporters that forced the Labour leader to change his position on a referendum (with the possible major exception of Shadow Chancellor
John McDonnell, who may have played an important role behind the scenes). It was people the Corbynites don't like.
Perhaps this helps explain why supporters of a second referendum have been so slow to declare victory. But they should, because they won.
You can have as many celebrities, backbenchers and former prime ministers as you like on your side, but you're extremely unlikely to win a vote in the House of Commons if both major parties are whipping against you.
Some opponents of Brexit might ask whether Corbyn can be trusted.
They say there is evidence he's actually quite keen on Brexit.
But the issue isn't really what Corbyn personally believes. It's whether he would break the promise he has now made repeatedly and publicly.
That's a promise to hold “a public vote, to give voters the final say with credible options for both sides including the option to remain”.
Some of Corbyn's critics also want to know how he will campaign, if a referendum does take place. Will he be backing remain, they ask?
My guess is that he'll do exactly what he did in the last referendum, which was to half-heartedly back the remain campaign while making it clear he doesn't really care either way. But so what?
If a referendum is called then it's up to supporters of EU membership to make their case (in the interests of transparency I should perhaps say our case).
All they can really demand from
He once promised ‘straight talking, honest politics’, but on Brexit he was as slippery as an eel
Corbyn is the chance to do so.
If you're a supporter of tactical voting, you might point out that there are situations where it makes no sense to vote Labour.
In a Tory-Lib Dem marginal, for example, where Labour has no chance of winning, then perhaps the most sensible choice for Brexit opponents is the Lib Dems.
Nonetheless, as a general rule, if you want to stop Brexit the most sensible thing now is to vote Labour.
Whether this makes Labour less or more likely to win a general election remains to be seen.