| STATESIDE Why hyper-local lockdowns could mean wider problems
BIRMINGHAM is unlikely to be taken off the official coronavirus “watchlist” in the near future, even though infection rates are falling.
And strict local lockdown measures are still a possibility.
However, the prospect of a local lockdown is extremely divisive, and has already sparked political rows both in public and behind the scenes, with Health Secretary Matt Hancock becoming drawn in.
One of the issues the Health Secretary is being asked to consider is whether any potential lockdown should cover the whole city or only parts of it.
Birmingham was last week placed on the Covid-19 watchlist by Public Health England, the national agency responsible for controlling the spread of the virus. The city became an “area of enhanced support”, meaning, among other things, that additional testing was put in place.
It followed a rapid increase in cases in the city, with the figure rising to 30.2 cases per 100,000 people.
Latest figures show that cases are falling, and the rate is now down to just over 20 cases per 100,000.
This is clearly good news, but it still means the infection rate in Birmingham is double the England average, and senior officials at a national level are cautious.
Last week, they feared case numbers in Birmingham were growing at an exponential rate, and naturally they are delighted that this appears not to be the case.
However, they also point out that Covid-19 is unpredictable and highlight the example of Oldham, in the North West, where Covid rates fell from a high point – only to rise rapidly again.
For this reason, the situation in Birmingham will remain under scrutiny despite what appears currently to be a drop in cases. Mr Hancock has been in contact with local MPs, West Midlands Mayor Andy Street and the city council, which has been pushing for more powers to tackle the spread of Covid.
The local authority got its wish this week, including the power to close down premises that are failing to comply with the national guidelines.
This would include, for example, bars or restaurants that fail to collect contact details for its patrons.
The authority has also set up a “whistle blowing number” for people to ring if they come across a business that is disobeying the rules – presumably so that the council can shut them down.
Council leader Ian Ward reportedly accepts the case for stricter measures including a city-wide lockdown if that's what it takes to halt the virus, though of course he hopes to avoid it.
But not everybody is so sure. Former council leader John Clancy has criticised the approach, saying last week: “Local authority figures in Birmingham are ridiculously putting the city on standby, it would appear, for a local lockdown.
“We know that lockdowns cause non-Covid19 death too. And where the disease itself is not causing death, a lockdown will cause deaths in
Birmingham, not prevent them. “Birmingham cannot, as a city, be in any way regarded as a Covid-19 hotspot.
“And rounding up from specific neighbourhoods where testing is now showing an increase and applying that to Birmingham as a whole simply won't wash.”
One of the points he makes is that even when cases increased, the problem was largely confined to specific areas of the city.
Very local data is available to the city council but is not officially published (due partly to the need to protect the privacy of those who are tested). However, it's reportedly the centre of Birmingham that saw an increase in cases.
Some MPs share Prof Clancy's concerns. They argue that if their part of the city is not experiencing an increase in cases then they should not be included in any lockdown, and say a city-wide lockdown would cause even more damage to the economy for no good reason.
This is in the context of concern that Birmingham could experience a huge spike in unemployment later in the year and early in 2021.
MPs who take this view have made their opinions known to Mr Hancock. There's also the difficult question of whether a “Birmingham” lockdown should include Solihull.
Perhaps a partial lockdown is possible.
But the potential dangers are highlighted in a blog post published last week by West Midlands Police. Superintendent Gareth Morris said he had held talks with groups including the West Midlands Faith in
Action Black Faith Leaders group, the African Caribbean Reference Group, who had “clearly reiterated very similar messages about clear tensions within their community and particularly around our response to gatherings as it relates to Covid.” He said that people had seen media coverage of crowded beaches and “influential people seeming to avoid prosecution or fines” (a clear reference to Dominic Cummings, although Supt Morris did not spell this out), and yet now the police “seem to be cracking down on music events and gatherings particularly within inner city areas.”
He said: “I was challenged on what was seen to be policing responses that directly treated groups of people and activities differently.”
If a partial local lockdown was to be introduced then one of the challenges facing local and national decision makers would be how to ensure it didn't exacerbate concern that parts of the community are being treated different to others.
Even when cases increased, the problem was largely confined to specific areas of the city