Learning to live with Covid
If the Government is forced to close the shops again this winter, it will be a very visible U-turn and Boris will look like a failure
AT the earliest stages of the coronavirus pandemic, we saw images of crowded Italian hospitals pushed to breaking point.
And when the virus spread across the UK, we saw patients treated with ventilators in our own hospitals.
Now, Boris Johnson's government is funding research into simple treatments such as pills which can be taken at home, to prevent people infected with Covid-19 developing serious symptoms.
The medicine doesn't exist yet, but the fact that it's within reach – and could apparently be available as soon as this winter – illustrates the huge advances in treatment that have been made over the past year.
Attention has focused on the development of a vaccine, understandably.
But the advances made in treatment for the infected are another triumph for medical science.
Mr Johnson's words, at a Downing Street press conference, also highlight a significant change in the Government's approach to Covid.
The virus hasn't gone away. The number of cases in France is higher than in the first wave, early last year, though still lower than the high reached in the second wave, in November.
Germany, Italy and Spain still have significant Covid infections. And the virus is spreading in other parts of the world.
There were 249,000 new confirmed cases over in India over seven days. Of course, India has a huge population, of 1.37 billion.
But the fact remains that vast numbers are infected in other parts of the world.
The infection rate in the UK is low. But what's happening overseas will eventually happen here.
As the lockdown comes to an end, the infection rate will rise again.
But this time, there will be no further lockdown.
Instead, Mr Johnson wants us to live our lives as normal, or something very close to it, while Covid-19 circulates through the population.
He hopes that a combination of vaccines and improved medical treatment will prevent deaths – or, at least, keep the death toll down to a level society will accept.
The Prime Minister made this clear, saying: “As we look at what is happening in other countries with cases now at record numbers around the world, we cannot delude ourselves that Covid has gone away.
“I see nothing in the data now that makes me think we are going to have to deviate in any way from the roadmap, cautious but irreversible, that we have set out.
“But the majority of scientific opinion in this country is still firmly of the view that there will be another wave of Covid at some stage this year. And so we must – as far as possible – learn to live with this disease, as we live with other diseases.”
He's also conceded separately that another wave of Covid will lead to more deaths – which, of course, it will.
When it comes to ending the lockdown, Mr Johnson has said he will be led by the data, not dates. In other words, the roadmap for ending the lockdown doesn't amount to a firm promise.
The planned ending of restrictions could be delayed.
It may feel as if lockdown has already largely ended, we are all still banned from meeting anyone we don't live with indoors, whether in a bar or restaurant or at home. Some hefty restrictions remain.
While the timetable for ending lockdown isn't cast in stone, the Prime Minister does make a point of saying that his roadmap is “irreversible”.
So once the lockdown fully ends, there will be no returning to it. This is quite a bold claim.
If the Government is forced to close the shops again this winter, it will be a very visible U-turn and Boris will look like a failure.
The Government hopes that we'll accept a rise in infections – and deaths – as the price for retaining our freedoms.
Some critics of lockdowns have compared Covid to flu, and pointed out that people die from flu every year but life goes on as normal.
This isn't really true, because even the most lethal strains of flu are far less deadly than coronavirus.
In 2017-18 there were 22,000 flu deaths, and this was one of the highest death tolls of recent years.
But there have been 151,000 deaths in the UK with coronavirus on the death certificate (that figure covers 13 months rather than a year, but it is still clear coronavirus is killing far more people).
And those Covid deaths are despite lockdowns – which have demonstrably reduced the infection rate, and therefore the death rate, significantly.
But in the future, the Government hopes that Covid-19 really will become something like flu.
It's going to cause deaths, but, it's hoped, the number will be small enough that we accept the risk and get on with our lives.