Fears over restrictions ending as winter from hell looms

IT is against the NHS crisis of demand that GPs are concerned about relaxing restrictions further.

Dr Manir Aslam said: “What will inevitably happen now with fewer restrictions is an increase in case rates and demand on health services that will take us into the next two months or so, and then into a winter which is going to be very difficult.

“I cannot accept the idea that, come July 19, if there are hardly any restrictions, that there will be no difference – things are going to be worse.

“We are still in a once-in-a-century pandemic.

“We have remarkable vaccines that are showing remarkable efficacy and, if we vaccinate the population, I think it is reasonable to say we live with this virus, with reduced transmission, reduced hospitalisations and reduced deaths.

“But what you cannot afford to do is to say now we can allow Covid to run rampant, when we have communities where vaccination rates are low, where we just don’t know how people are going to react.”

The most recent Government data (July 1) showed huge gaps in vaccination uptake locally, with more hesitancy in the most deprived, and most ethnically diverse parts of the city.

It all adds up to a worrying year ahead, with Dr Aslam sharing a reality check about what could be in store this winter.

“Last winter was unprecedented – we mostly asked people to stay at home, and as a result the transmission of other viruses was significantly reduced,” said Dr Aslam. “We vaccinated a lot of people against flu but did not have significant outbreaks.”

But this would not last, he predicted.

In a typical winter season both adults and children would build up immunity responses to respiratory viruses through exposure to them, he said.

But those normal immunity levels have been naturally suppressed by isolation – and that is making doctors nervous about the risk of a combined peak in other respiratory illnesses, potentially alongside continued Covid surges.

“We are not going to have the usual level of immunity to flu strains, nor will our children have the level of immunity to bronchiolitis that we would normally see through year on year peaks.

“That does make us nervous about the level of disease we will see this winter, with Covid on top.

“We normally expect children to pass on seven to 10 viruses per winter period – so if we did not get them to do that this last year, are we going to see cases of respiratory viruses surge this summer and into winter if we have no restrictions? It is really not clear to me, or anyone else.”