GPs and A&Es on the brink
Region’s NHS primary care seeing winter-like pressures as lockdown lifts
A lot of people have not wanted to trouble them with little things, and so there is a suppressed demand coming out now Chris Vaughan, Patient Participation Group
ASURGE in pressure on health services in Birmingham and the Black Country normally only seen in the middle of winter is pushing GPs, medics and 999 services to the brink – with fears that demand will only increase when more restrictions lift.
Primary care services are reporting 50 per cent more demand from patients than before the pandemic, allied to record numbers trying to access A&E, ambulances queueing up to off-load patients and NHS 111 services in the city under huge strain.
And there is a desperate worry that ending social distancing and mask wearing rules on July 19 will only add to demand, especially while case rates keep going up.
Ladywood GP Dr Manir Aslam, a member of the leadership team for Black Country and West Birmingham clinical commissioning group fears the impact on the tens of thousands who remain unvaccinated, who tend to be clustered in the poorest areas and among some ethnicities.
Speaking to the Post about the “phenomenal” NHS response to the pandemic, Dr Aslam voiced his concerns ahead of Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s ‘freedom day’ plans.
“Looking at the path of this pandemic in the area, and particularly here in Ladywood, we are seeing escalating rates while we are in this ‘lockdown’,” he said, with the Delta Variant of the virus spreading rapidly as the city opens up.
Birmingham as a whole now has an infection rate of 270.5 per 100,000 people, with 3,089 new positive cases in the past week.
Solihull’s infection rate has rocketed to 340.2, while Sandwell has now topped 200 for the first time since early spring.
But while rising cases alone is cause for concern, it’s the pressure already on health services that is alarming – with a big spike in coronavirus illnesses the last thing anyone in health needs as they bid to recover and reset other services.
People who held off seeking care
during the pandemic are now coming forward, and in some cases their ailments have got worse, explained Dr Aslam.
Another GP, who works in Solihull, said: “A lot of people, particularly the Covid-anxious and older people, have not wanted to be a burden.”
Data shows 13,000 fewer people in Birmingham were referred to hospitals with suspected cancer symptoms last year – with expectations that many of them will now be seeking help, belatedly.
And as GP phonelines light up, some are abandoning the wait and heading to A&E instead, adding to pressures there caused by attempts
to deal with backlogs of operations and treatments.
The circulation of winter viruses in children – such as respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and bronchiolitis – are also emerging sooner than normal, as a result of pupils mixing again after a winter of relative isolation. There are now 76 Covid positive patients in Birmingham hospitals – compared to just four at the start of June – and that is merely the tip of the iceberg, with the UHB trust’s other 2,000-plus beds rapidly filling as medics try to cope with more elective demand, delayed ops and emergencies.
Emergency attendances are up from 900 a day prepandemic to
1,350 a day now. It is the same story at Sandwell and City hospitals, with continuing daily admissions, often of younger (under 50) patients with Covid, alongside all the other conditions they are treating.
West Midlands Ambulance Service ambulances continue to face delays handing over 999 patients to hospitals, in part because of reduced capacity in A&Es because of Covid distancing restrictions, and are seeing response times dip as a result.
Dr Aslam, partner at Broadway Health Centre in the heart of Ladywood, said GPs were feeling the strain.
If every practice like his was to fail to meet the needs of just two people a day – who then turn to A&E as a result – the local system would be in real jeopardy, he said.
“Normally we can create extra appointments to help the local health system at critical times, but we are all very stretched.”