How will this bond thriller end for the UK and its economy?
uncertainty”, “falling pound”, “promised tax cuts”, “funded by government savings” are all familiar phrases which are no longer headline-grabbing statements.
They barely raise an eyebrow of surprise when we hear them now.
The markets punished the former Chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, for not setting out his fiscal plan when delivering his mini budget at the end of last month.
Then he got further punished by Liz Truss and lost his job and was replaced by Jeremy Hunt, the fourth Chancellor in four months for the UK.
The markets believed that if money was not in the Treasury coffers, the UK would have to borrow and pay more against the backdrop of increasing interest rates.
At the same time, there is uncertainty in the energy market and a looming recession whereby unemployment may suddenly do a U-turn from its current low of 3.5%.
This nervousness has been seen in the bond market with more ups and downs than a James Bond thriller.
It goes to demonstrate the fragility of the UK economy and lack of confidence international investors have in the UK.
Jeremy Hunt’s plan is to reverse most of the policies set by his predecessor with a view to bringing back confidence and stability.
To help understand why the markets reacted as they did, it is important to understand that government bonds are issued to raise money to bridge the gap between a shortfall in tax revenue and government expenditure, estimated at £60 billion.
The UK’s problem is that these bonds are now being resold at a lower value, meaning that the government IOU with a specific return can be purchased at a lower capital figure but with the same return.
In the meantime, the government has to continue to borrow and can only issue bonds with a higher interest rate to achieve the same capital return, which means the long term interest rates increase.
As this cycle continues and the long term interest rate increases, this will feed into mortgages and other borrowing rates.
All this uncertainty is not helped by the governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, saying last week the bank did not intend to extend its emergency bond-buying programme beyond the Friday deadline.
However, it is clear that the bank will have no choice but to continue to do this in some form until the new Chancellor announces his fiscal plan and economic forecast in October. The UK is not the only country to face the spectre of inflation but every country is taking different approaches in terms of monetary policy.
The USA has continued to increase interest rates and suck in foreign investment to meet its desire for cash whilst Japan is trying to keep interest rates low to stimulate growth after Covid which has meant a plummeting Yen. The question is in which direction is the UK going to head, is it going to follow Japan or the USA?