150,000 more people will drive us underground, but at what cost?
BIRMINGHAM must have an underground train service in the future just to cope with a soaring population, some experts believe.
The number of people living in the city is projected to increase by 150,000 in the next nine years alone, and current development plans will not be enough to service the city in 50 years time.
The new transport consultation proposes a ‘radical’ underground tunnel to run beneath Birmingham City Centre.
An expert, who works within the train industry and wished to remain anonymous, explained the situation.
Currently, the tunnels which run into New Street cannot accommodate any more train services, and an additional tunnel is impossible, because it would interfere with the foundations of the Bullring shopping centre.
Therefore, deep underground tunnels such as that being proposed, are the logical response as space higher up, and above ground diminishes.
However, medium term plans to improve the region’s rail network will only buy transport chiefs so much time before an underground tunnel is required.
These include HS2, which is expected to be up and running within ten years, and a £2 billion package of improvements to eastwest rail connections is already under way.
However, when the time comes to seriously consider an underground development plan, the key hurdle Birmingham will face is likely to be funding.
UK cities are reliant on funding from central government for transport infrastructure, unlike countries such as Germany and France where regions are in charge of their own money. For an indication of how much a Birmingham tube – dubbed ‘Brumderground’ by some – might cost, we can look to the recent Crossrail development in London.
A similar amount of tunnelling would be necessary under the Second City – to the tune of about £18 billion.
However, a key difference between London and Birmingham is the ‘land value capture’ – basically the increase in value of land due to the high cost of London real estate.
For example, the development of Canary Wharf in the 1980s would have been impossible without connecting it to the rest of London via the London Docklands Railway and the jubilee tube line.
But once it was connected, the value of the land went up – as did the wealth disparity which we see there today. If Birmingham chiefs do seriously consider creating an underground, they may also need to convince a doubtful public.