Is it still happening? Probably. Bow takes a look.

Bow's Olympic countdown tentatively restarts

Predicting whether this year's Tokyo Olympics will go ahead or not has become exceptionally difficult. If 2020 taught us anything, it was that the best laid plans are very likely indeed to go astray.

The official word is and has always been since last year's postponement: a firm and committed 'yes'. Organisers and the International Olympic Committee have insisted the Olympics will open as scheduled on July 23, with the Paralympics due to follow on August 24. But the spread of the latest variant will increase global concern over whether either Games can go ahead in the event's rescheduled slot in 2021.

A sharp rise in the infection rate as 2020 turned to 2021, part of the global second wave, saw the president Yoshihide Suga threatening to declare a state of emergency in the greater Tokyo region. (One was previously declared in April 2020 and rescinded in May.)

On the last day of 2020, the Japanese government suspended the previous relaxed entry conditions for athletes and officials travelling from countries to have reported cases of the latest variant of coronavirus. Both Japanese athletes and those with residency in the country will have to quarantine for 14 days if arriving from countries including Britain, France, Italy and South Africa until at least the end of January. This is an escalation of the current ban on foreign nationals ,which is also due to continue through January.

This development is set against the widelylauded news that effective vaccines have been developed and are currently being distributed to the most vulnerable around the world. But with Olympic officials and technicians due to start entering Japan imminently to begin Games preparations, the clock is ticking.

It seems certain that if the Games goes ahead as scheduled, they will almost certainly look very different, although clear plans have not yet emerged. The most controversial of all is that the Games – or parts of it – may be held behind closed doors in some way. This has been denied repeatedly for the whole of 2020, but rumour suggests it may be back on the agenda. The same rumours have suggested that only the swimming and the athletics stadium will see spectators, and then only from Japan.

In response, the Athlete's Village mayor, Saburō Kawabuchi said "Having the best athletes in the world competing without an audience would be like cooking a meal with no seasoning."

"It's the fans who provide the excitement and make the athletes want to give their best. The fans give them the power to far exceed what we imagine possible." Nevertheless, it remains a possibility, although losing the billions of dollars in foreign tourist ticket and other revenue generated by a Summer Games would considerably deepen the already-deep financial hole the Japanese government is in. It is probably best to see this as a worst-case scenario - for the moment.

In any case, not all spectators in any one venue are ticketed. Each Summer Olympics welcomes well over 20,000 journalists, broadcasters, technicians, sponsors, marketers and sport officials from every country in the world, all of whom will have to be certified COVID-FREE. It seems less likely that vaccination would be mandatory due to human rights concerns, but it seems almost certain that a recent negative COVID test will be compulsory for anyone from abroad wishing to enter Japan, which is already part of the current package of countermeasures against the virus.

As part of the measures which are likely to be introduced to hold the Games safely, athletes have been told they will be expected to arrive in the Tokyo 2020 Athletes' Village no more than five days prior to their competition and depart a maximum of two days afterwards. This means that thousands will probably miss out on the Opening Ceremony, a key touchstone of becoming an Olympian (although elite archers with competition the next day often skip the ceremony anyway).

This schedule also disrupts the usual regional training camps held by national committees and squads from all over the world. A host towns initiative has seen more than 500 municipalities across Japan enrolled to host athletes and staff competing at the Games. Already, the uneven disruption from COVID has changed schedules, with some able to train almost as normal and some stuck back in 'lockdown mode'. (Elite sport in the UK on official schedules is allowed to continue under lockdown.) The playing field in a chaotic leadup to the Games will be anything but level.

Perhaps we can expect a final decision on Tokyo 2020, one way or another, by March. Until then the questions and uncertainties will continue – yet there are also encouraging signs. The next two months may be dark, but if (via the miracle of vaccination science) the world turns a corner, 2021 might just turn out to be the incredible year 2020 was meant to be.