Olympics news
It's happening. Probably. I mean, right. You think?
It's full steam ahead in Olympics-land. Squads are being named, broadcasts are being planned (in the UK, we can look forward to an Opening Ceremony happening around mid-morning) and the merchandise warehouses are being fully stocked.
Just as public opinion seemed to get some momentum, the antediluvian former Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori, the Tokyo 2020 president, weighed in with some remarks that came from another era. "On boards with a lot of women, the meetings take so much time," he said during a Japanese Olympic Committee meeting, according to the local press. "When you increase the number of female executive members, if their speaking time isn't restricted to a certain extent, they have difficulty finishing, which is annoying."
Mori, who had plenty of form with a long string of public gaffes, later claimed he was "deeply sorry" at a media conference, and then almost doubled-down; when pressed on whether he thought women did talk too much, Mori then said: "I don't listen to women that much lately so I don't know." The indignant chorus from inside Japan and around the world – including major sponsors – for his resignation didn't die away, and he was forced out in early February. It was a clunky moment from a country still largely run on a seniority basis; and a sign that for the oldest of old sports guards, things can and must change.
Mori's creaking remarks did nothing to help the Olympics' status in Japan. Prior to the outbreak of COVID-19, most Japanese welcomed Tokyo 2020, as they believed the benefits of hosting would outweigh the costs, and the country has some of the world's most rabid Olympics fans.
The most recent survey last month found 80 per cent of Japanese people want the Games to be cancelled or postponed, with more than 35 per cent of those surveyed calling for the cancellation of the Games and 44.8 per cent arguing for another postponement – even though, for multiple reasons, another postponement is categorically impossible.
Opinion polls are not a good guide to Olympic futures – one shortly before London 2012 found just 50% of Londoners in favour for what eventually turned into a wildlypopular triumph for the UK and UK sport. But London was 100% nailed on to happen regardless. Here, the anti-olympics movement still smells blood, and the organisers perhaps haven't spelled out the 'psychic income' benefits in pride and wellbeing to come, the benefits that London 2012 generated in spades for years afterwards.
Exactly what the Games will look like has still not been fully revealed. More hints are being dropped that this will be a 'TV Olympics', with minimal crowds and few - if any – travelling foreign spectators. It is clear both from recent events and for obvious epidemiological reasons, that the stadiums both temporary and unbuilt will not be allowed to be filled to capacity.
The recent annual US Super Bowl event, held at Tampa's Raymond James stadium, saw 25,000 fans (and a lot of cardboard cutouts) 'filling' a 66k capacity stadium, a ratio of around 38%. It seems likely we can look to this for at least vague guidance as to how many people might be allowed in to each Olympic venue. The Yumenoshima Park Archery Field was due to hold 5,600 fans per session in Tokyo, a little under the capacity of the Lords venue at London 2012, which held 6,500.
It remains to be seen how many fans will get to watch the competition live. For the vast majority of the world, for their entire lifetime, the Olympics is something that is experienced on TV, and Tokyo's seats being empty or full would not change that. It would, of course change the atmosphere enormously. Many athletes speak of the experience of going out into a noisy arena at the Games as the greatest moment of their lives; it is always the biggest crowd they will ever play to. Making a timeless spectacle without fans will certainly be very difficult.
The new US President Joe Biden weighed in on the fate of the postponed Tokyo 2020 during the aforementioned Super Bowl at the beginning of February. Biden said he hoped the Games would be able to take place for the sake of the athletes. "I’ve spoken with the Prime Minister of Japan, he’s working very hard to be in a position to safely open the Games, to have the Games, and I think that has to be based on science, whether or not it is safe for that to occur," Biden said.
"Imagine all those Olympians who work for four years, four years for one shot and all of a sudden that opportunity gets lost. They are the people that I feel such pain for - but we have to do it based on the science."
He may be the leader of the free world, but he doesn't get to decide whether the Games go ahead. However, words from the President are highly influential, and a positive statement about them definitely going ahead would energise the Olympic movement. Conversely, a negative statement might start a chain reaction to a dramatic and likely-fatal end to Tokyo, if for example the USA pulled their athletes out.
As of this writing, the Games are very much on, barring unexpected events – and it wouldn't take a huge one. It must be very difficult to be an Olympic athlete right now.