Covid School return ‘delayed’ amid suggestion of Tier 5 as cases soar
GOVERNMENT officials are poring over crucial coronavirus data points ahead of today’s formal tier review.
The review today is expected to dictate restrictions from the beginning of 2021, as the mutant variant of Covid-19 continues to spread.
Speculation has intensified in the past few days that the review could introduce a new Tier 5 in some areas, tightening restrictions to a similar extent to the March lockdown.
Pressure is growing for the expansion of the toughest coronavirus restrictions in the face of increasing strain on hospitals in England, where the number of patients has surpassed the April peak of the first wave.
Yesterday, the UK reported a record number of new infections for the second day running, with 53,135 daily cases, up from 41,385 on Monday.
And secondary schools in England are set to remain closed for at least an extra week after the Christmas break, it has been reported.
Ministers have agreed to the delay after facing mounting calls to put back the reopening of schools as coronavirus cases soar, reports the Mirror.
Downing Street insisted the plan remains to open up schools in a staggered fashion.
Health Secretary Matt Hancock is due to announce any changes to tier areas in a statement to the Commons today.
The independent SAGE group of scientists are among those calling for blanket national measures, advising that the “entire UK should go into Tier 4”.
Bristol, North Somerset and South Gloucestershire are currently in Tier 3, while Bath and North East Somerset is in Tier 2.
Bristol and North Somerset were downgraded from Tier 3 to Tier 2 on December 19, which lasted all of one week until they were hauled back into Tier 3 on Boxing Day.
South Gloucestershire has been in Tier 3 since December 2, after the end of the national lockdown.
Past tier changes have come into force a few days after being announced, allowing businesses time to prepare. Bristol City Council said it understood any changes in the tier review would come into effect in “early January”.
What could happen in Bristol?
It is difficult to predict with certainty what will happen in the next tier review, but a simple comparison of statistics can provide helpful context.
The Government’s local tier allocations are based on five key coronavirus data points in each area:
» Analysis of cases across all age groups
» Analysis of cases specifically among the over-60s
» Rate by which cases are rising or falling
» Rate of positivity per 100,000 of those tested in local population who are found to have Covid
» Current and projected pressures on the NHS
The Post has compared some of these key data points for Bristol, South Gloucestershire and North Somerset, comparing statistics from December 23 (when tier revisions were last announced) and the latest figures from Monday.
Due to a delay in the publication of figures for specific age groups, hospital bed occupancy and rolling case rates, the only figures that are easily comparable at this point are the case numbers.
The official seven-day rolling case rates are only available up to December 23, but the Post has calculated a more recent rate based on the number of cases and the population.
Seven-day rates are expressed per 100,000 population and are calculated by dividing the seven day count by the area population and multiplying by 100,000.
Our analysis suggests Bristol and South Gloucestershire’s rates have dropped slightly since last week’s tier review, while North Somerset’s have risen.
Bristol
» Case numbers: 896 in the seven days to December 23; 850 in the seven days to December 28
» Rolling case rate: 193.4 in the seven days up to December 23; 183.2 (roughly) in the seven days to December 28
North Somerset
» Case numbers: 452 in the seven days to December 23; 540 in the seven days to December 28
» Rolling case rate: 210.2 in the seven days up to December 23; 251.2 (roughly) in the seven days to December 28
South Gloucestershire
» Case numbers: 548 in the seven days to December 23; 523 in the seven days to December 28
» Rolling case rate: 192.2 in the seven days up to December 23; 184.8 (roughly) in the seven days to December 28
Across both of Bristol’s NHS hospital trusts, which also serve South Gloucestershire and North Somerset, there were 226 coronavirus patients taking up hospital beds as of December 23.