Favourites set to dominate but don’t rule out surprises
HOT favourites feature in Saturday’s three big races. Small fields make them hard to get away from – in two cases out of three.
Ascot has a terrific card. The first possible good thing is L’Homme Presse, above, in the 1965 Chase at 2.05. He has won his initial outings in the last two seasons and there are only a few taking him on. Though Venetia Williams’ stable is 0-23 in the last fortnight and 208 days without a winner (as at Thursday morning) he should still be good enough to win.
Saint Calvados, ridden by the indomitable amateur David Maxwell, ought to provide a decent test.
Constitution Hill is even harder to oppose in the 2.40. This race is three furlongs further than he’s attempted before over hurdles, though he appeared to stay three miles when finishing second in a point-to-point 18 months ago.
Goshen’s presence makes it interesting, but Brewin’upastorm is a safer option for forecast backers.
The Betfair Chase at Haydock has potential to bypass the favourite, A Plus Tard, who demolished the field in last year’s race and in the Gold Cup. He is the obvious choice, and yet each of his four opponents have a lot to recommend them.
Protektorat was third in the Gold Cup, beaten 17 lengths, but is still only seven and might have some improvement left in him.
The market suggests there is stable confidence, as his price contracted during the week.
Eldorado Allen, by finishing second to Bravemansgame in the Charlie Hall, proved he was his equal; he was beaten three lengths, conceding three pounds. If Bravemansgame was in the Betfair Chase he would be a lot shorter than the 14/1 Eldorado Allen is on offer.
Frodon’s entry is an afterthought, just two weeks after he won the Badger Beer at Wincanton. Knowing how he can jump and gallop, and given the Nicholls yard’s form, it would be rash to dismiss him altogether. For a horse of his ability 20/1 is a big price. That last pair might find three miles and one and a half furlongs is at or beyond the limit of their stamina. There are no such doubts about Bristol De Mai, three times a winner of the Betfair.
Nigel Twiston-Davies is sure to have him fit and ready to win the race for a fourth time and if the ground is properly soft he will have a decent chance at around 6/1.
At the prices, small win bets on any or all of the three outsiders are worth considering in case A Plus Tard is not 100 per cent.
These odds on favourites may all go in, but nothing can be taken for granted in jump racing, as we were reminded on Monday when the 100/1 shot El Hageb Rose won at Plumpton. The eight-year-old maiden dashed past the opposition in the last quarter of a mile as if he’d just joined in. His local trainer Paddy Butler hadn’t had a winner over jumps for six years. His last winner on the flat was three years ago. Since 1988 the stable has turned out 71 winners, an average of two a year. His owners can only afford to buy horses at the very bottom of the bargain basement. El Hageb Rose was one such.
His very first outing was in May 2018 for Gary Moore in a bumper. He must have shown something at home, for he was sent off at 7/2, only to finish down the field. He showed little the next season apart from one good second place in a hurdle. He was tailed off in a chase in October 2019 and then had two years off. On returning at Chepstow in January he was pulled up. There are few horses that Moore can’t get to win, but El Hageb Rose was one.
He was sold to the Homewoodgate Racing Club, who have had horses with Butler for 20 years.
Imagine his former connections’ feelings when, on the horse’s first appearance for a new yard, he bolts up at a huge price. That’s racing!