Why it’s worth considering facts more than opinions
TWO weeks ago, as the Cheltenham preview nights were coming to an end, I suggested the panellists didn’t know much more, if anything, than the man or woman on the street. Punters should simply make up their own minds. Some of the content was opinion, whereas most of the facts (ie: form) are in plain sight. What a pundit might do is point out a less obvious fact – such as “this horse goes best right-handed” or “the trainer has won this race x times in y years”.
Last week I tipped the 12/1 winner of the Midlands National. I don’t crow about my occasional successful tips (I try to throw in some long shots, and by definition they’re not going to win as often) and naturally I don’t draw attention to my losing streaks.
One of my friends, seeing a certain tipster’s long-odds Cheltenham winner being hailed in the national newspaper for which he writes, was interested enough to review his selections for the whole meeting. It turned out that long shot was one of just three winners he found from 28 races, and one of others was Constitution Hill.
So, when you make your selections, consider the difference between facts and opinions. That of course should also apply to me as well.
Fact – at the time of writing Nicky Henderson had had two winners from his last 34 runners. Opinion – it may be worth ignoring his horses until they resume winning ways.
Fact – Philip Hobbs has had just 25 winners this year, at a nine per cent strike rate. In 2021-22 there were 70 at 14 per cent. Opinion – steer clear of his horses for now.
Fact – Kim Bailey had gone two months without a winner until last weekend. Then he had one at Uttoxeter, and on Wednesday two at Haydock. Opinion – the stable is in form again; his horses in the near future may have some poor form figures, but they can be excused.
One of my aims in writing these columns is to spur interest in the weekend’s racing. Tomorrow’s televised races are from Newbury and Kelso and although household names are lacking, something’s going to win each one. There aren’t many 3m2f hurdle races around, and Kelso’s 2.25 is one of them. Inis Oirr has improved during the winter, and after being outclassed last time out in a Grade Two, he will be happier in this much lesser company. Paddy Brennan will be in Scotland for one ride, Bonttay, in the 3.00.
Towards the end of ITV4’s programme some races from Meydan are being shown. They may have immense prize money, but I am yet to come across any ordinary punter with the slightest increase in racing in the desert states.
Looking a couple of weeks ahead, on Good Friday Bath has its first meeting of the season. It is going to be their richest race day ever. There will be plenty of entertainment for the children, including a petting farm, donkey rides and a funfair. Under-18s get in free. Further afield there’s the Lambourn Open Day, with a host of stables one can visit and numerous stalls selling all sorts of things in the main field, where a variety of horse-related fun and games take place in the afternoon. Under-12s go free. In 2022 the Good Friday weather was glorious. Can history repeat itself?