Could Omicron variant be Covid’s swansong?
RIGHT at the start of this wretched pandemic, Boris Johnson infamously told Philip Schofield and Holly Willoughby on This Morning that one of the options that had been explored to tackle the virus was to “take it on the chin” and let it sweep through the population.
A lot of people took it literally, and assumed the Government was being frivolous with public safety, but here we are now, nearly two years on, facing what could be our third lockdown. Or is it the fourth? I’ve lost count.
Anyway, we’ve now probably had as many new variants as we’ve had lockdowns and an uncertain winter is on the cards for many people, especially those who run businesses.
Most of the messages the Government has given us paint a bleak picture, and there have been predictions that suggest there could be 75,000 deaths from the latest strain. It’s all very frightening.
But we’re already learning a lot about Omicron. And the way I understand it, there might be a lot to be optimistic about.
I realise some of this might have changed even in the short time between me writing this column and you reading it, as it’s all moving so fast, but we have certainly established that Omicron seems to result in less severe illnesses than Delta. I’ve also heard that Omicron is more likely to give its hosts a natural immunity. And that booster jabs are around 70% effective. Don’t take any of this as gospel because, like I say, it seems to change every day. Do check the latest numbers for yourself.
But if Omicron really does offer a strong immune response in those that have caught it, then surely it will act as a natural vaccine. This is important not just for the small percentage of people who chose not to get a jab in the UK, but also for those in the nations with a poor vaccine record.
Even more importantly, if it is true, this could lead to every nation in the world – regardless of their vaccination status – quickly reaching herd immunity. At least in my head.
Shortly after the pandemic started, a very sceptical friend of mine got hot under the collar about the lockdown and insisted he couldn’t understand why we weren’t just shielding all the vulnerable people away, letting the virus loose, building up herd immunity and then seeing it off.
At the time, it was a pretty daft suggestion. Millions and millions of people, including my wife, were at risk of severe illness from Covid, and the NHS couldn’t have coped with an influx of people who didn’t even know they were vulnerable and had thrown caution to the wind. Even if it could, the economy couldn’t have coped with the sudden disappearance of all those people.
We also had no vaccines, we had no natural protection from antibodies developed in previous infections and, quite frankly, we didn’t have enough of an idea of what the virus was capable of.
But we do now. We are getting to know more and more about Delta’s South African cousin. We know it’s going to kill Delta off and leave us all exposed to this milder, but more contagious disease. And we know it will result in proportionally fewer hospitalisations, on a population level.
So maybe the Government’s swiftly dismissed idea, back in March 2020, of letting it sweep through the population, needs a second thought. I’m no virologist, and I would welcome a genuine expert telling me where I’m wrong in this theory, but it looks like Covid-19 is having its final fling with us.
Looking at the data in South Africa, cases of Omicron are already falling in the epicentre of Gauteng, so we might not have a long journey through the final wave. It might just be a short, sharp shock. This is, after all, how the Spanish flu pandemic came to a sudden end. Sort of.
If I’m right, and I’ll freely admit, I’m not that good with predictions, Omicron could be such a vulnerable mutation that it might just be Covid’s long-awaited swansong.
If Omicron really does offer a strong immune response in those that have caught it, then surely it will act as a natural vaccine