Zeichner Labour are the one clear winner of elections as others suffered

WHAT to make of last week’s election results? In summary, very good for Labour, very bad for the Conservatives, worse for the Liberal Democrats than many noticed, and not as good for the Greens as some suggested.

Others may disagree with my analysis, but let me explain.

Very good for Labour because, frankly, some of the opinion poll leads being reported just didn’t seem credible. The Prime Minister has been clutching at straws by pointing out that the overall vote share didn’t reflect the huge poll lead, but he is missing the point.

People who vote in local elections aren’t typical of the wider electorate – the very fact that they vote shows them to be much more engaged and involved, and they will include people who are highly partisan and will never change their minds, the real hard core.

In a General Election, almost twice the number of people vote – and they are far more likely to go with the flow, the general trend, and at the moment that really isn’t with the Conservatives.

So while I understand the Prime Minister trying to find any crumb of comfort, there really wasn’t much for him. Yes, Ben Houchen held the mayoralty in the Tees Valley, but not by much, and the swing against him in all the Parliamentary seats would have been enough to unseat the current Conservative MPs.

His only other ray of comfort came in Harlow, a seat I know reasonably well, and have visited a number of times recently. That was genuinely a surprise – it was actually very close and came down to a handful of votes in one ward.

But it was a disappointment for Labour, and will serve as a timely warning against any sense of complacency.

The Prime Minister says the result of the next election isn’t a foregone conclusion, and of course he is right on that.

But admitting that he thinks Labour will be the largest party is an odd way to lead a party into an election, and it is no wonder that Conservative MPs looked so glum at Prime Minister’s questions this week.

He certainly wasn’t helped by the stonking result for Labour in the Blackpool South by-election – a huge win, another over 20% swing, and worth remembering that these are real votes, not pollster predictions.

But what about closer to home? It was a good night for Labour in Cambridge, and congratulations to Mike Davey and colleagues.

The Greens put in a big effort in Coleridge, but Labour’s Tim Griffin deservedly emerged with a good majority.

The only change came in Newnham, where the once impregnable Liberal Democrats surrendered their last City seat to the Greens, coming in third, despite fielding the well-known and highly-regarded Lucy Nethsingha as the sitting candidate.

Which brings me to the Lib Dems. They have been making a big play about winning so-called blue-wall seats from the Conservatives in the south, and in some places they did do well.

But the warning signs are there for them that Labour is just as likely to win as they are – and once the electorate understand that, they are in real trouble.

In the Mid Bedfordshire by-election last summer, Labour and the Lib Dems went head to head, and the tactical voting argument collapsed – if you want a change of Government, you do it by voting for that changed Government, Labour.

Dig into the detail of the Police and Crime Commissioner elections and you find that Labour out-polled the Lib Dems in four of the county’s six districts and even in South Cambridgeshire and East Cambridgeshire it was pretty much a three-way split between the parties.

And remember, those less-engaged voters are far more likely to vote Labour in a General Election.

So now, the smart tactical voting choice in Cambridgeshire if you don’t want a Conservative government is to vote Labour.

Elsewhere, in areas where the Greens claim to be competitive, the same happened, it is Labour who are the realistic challenger.

A final thought on the Police and Crime Commissioner election – a very close result, and a big disappointment for me that the excellent Anna Smith didn’t quite make it.

Under the old voting system, she would have won – which is why the Conservatives changed the rules. When they introduced mayors and PCCs they said they wanted to use a voting system that would more closely reflect the wishes of most voters.

Now they just want to cling on, and noble ambitions are ditched.

In conclusion, I would say, no Prime Minister, the outcome of the General Election isn’t a foregone conclusion, but the country is ready for change, and it can’t come soon enough for most.