Concerns highlighted over trade deal

WE have recently given evidence to the House of Lords International Agreements Committee inquiry into the Uk-australia trade deal. It provided us with an opportunity to reinforce how little Wales and the UK would benefit from such a deal. The UK Government’s own figures and projections demonstrate that the degree to which the agreement in principle published in June 2021 delivers on UK interests is negligible.

For example, those figures suggest the Uk-australia trade deal could increase UK GDP by 0.01% or 0.02% in the long run under considered scenarios, equivalent to an increase in UK GDP of £200m and £500m respectively, with resulting increases in average UK wages of 0.01% and 0.05% respectively. The latter figures equate to an increase in the average annual UK wage in the long run of £3.15 and £15.75 respectively (based on the current average UK income).

It is perhaps notable that the Department for International Trade’s estimated longterm increases in UK GDP of £200m and £500m compare with average values for Welsh red meat production and GVA of Welsh agriculture of £690m and £469m respectively.

The UK Government modelling also suggests a deal similar to that proposed could lead to an increase in UK exports to

Australia of 7.3%, compared with an increase in imports from Australia of 83.2%, with a large portion of the latter expected to comprise of Australian food imports, predominantly beef and lamb.

Notwithstanding other concerns, inherent to such an increase in food imports would be a reduction in the UK’S food security, both or either through the displacement of domestic production and/or through additional reliance on food produced many thousands of miles away as opposed to in neighbouring countries. Let’s not forget that the shipping distance between Melbourne and London is around 12,700 miles, compared to a shipping distance of 220 miles between Rotterdam and London.

Such a reduction in food security would come at a time when the coronavirus pandemic has highlighted the fragility of both domestic and global food supply chains.

These were just some of the concerns we highlighted in our response to the inquiry and we remain opposed to the trade deal with Australia as it currently stands. With that in mind, I would urge members to use the lobbying tool on our website to ask their MP to use all means possible to prevent the UK signing the Uk-australia and other trade deals that will threaten the economic, environmental and social sustainability in our constituency.