Has the long-term impact of trade deals been considered?

AS Sue Grey’s ‘update’ and further revelations about parties and drinking in Number 10 during lockdowns continue to besiege the Prime Minister, some are asking what real difference hard-working officials letting their hair down really made.

After all, it’s not as if any of the parties turned out to be superspreader events that brought operations at Number 10 to a standstill and crippled the running of the country.

But while many of us will be guilty of forgetting to put a mask on or breaking the two-metre rule as we tried to pass someone in the supermarket, the scale and frequency of what was happening amongst those who were dictating the rules to the rest of the population is truly shocking.

From the perspective of food and agriculture, and the long-term interests of the UK, there are grave concerns that this culture of shorttermism permeates all levels of Government politics, including those relating to our trade negotiations with other countries.

The fanfares and soundbites that have accompanied announcements on trade deals with Australia and New Zealand have brought instant gratification for the UK Government, but has serious consideration been to the long-term impact and true value of these?

The UK Government’s own impact assessment suggests not: The long-term the benefits of the Uk-australia Free Trade Agreement, which is currently being considered by the UK Parliament, are expected to comprise a miniscule increase in the UK’S GDP of just 0.08% and a long term increase in the average UK wage of around 60p a week.

Meanwhile, immediate Australian access to duty free transitional quotas for key agriculture products, including beef and sheepmeat, sugar and dairy, with eventual tariff elimination, are estimated to lead to a fall in the GVA of the UK’S agrifood sectors of more than a quarter of a billion pounds, which the UK Government admits is “...driven by increased import competition in the beef and sheepmeat sub-sectors”, and with further deals with other countries in the pipeline, this is just the thin end of the wedge.

Inherent to such an increase in food imports would be a reduction in the UK’S food security at a time when both the coronavirus pandemic and gas shortages/ energy price rises have highlighted the vulnerability of global supply chains to global events.

The impact assessment also highlights potential adverse impacts on natural resources at a time of grave concerns regarding our environment and climate, stating that “Increased production from trade could put pressure on water resources and quality through agricultural, industrial and urban pollution.”

Let us hope that the MPS and Lords considering these deals take a genuine long-term view, rather than rubber-stamping what has been agreed during possibly the shortest trade negotiations in history and driven by a desire to be seen to get them signed quickly and perhaps enjoy the post-signing party.