All about percentages
There is more to auction reality than any of the headline prices reported. I have always believed that the percentage sold at auction is the most accurate statistic for assessing current market reality for classics, reflecting as it does what premium-inclusive prices auctioneers can achieve for cars and what their vendors are prepared to accept for them. But in response to a suggestion from a reader from Derbyshire that I should crunch ALL the numbers to reveal the whole picture, I have done just that at the latest Historics at Brooklands sale – beautifully presented, fully transparent and well attended.
For while I logged the immediate sale of 85 classics from 132 lots offered, and therefore 46 lots (or 34.8 per cent) in the catalogue had failed to sell on the day, more detailed analysis of the 65.2 per cent that were hammered away before further post-sales had been negotiated reveals so much more to market watchers.
For nearly 14 per cent of all cars consigned and 21 per cent of cars sold were at no reserve, so they were always going to be on a one-way journey, whereas 114 cars (or just over 86 per cent of those auctioned) were subject to vendors’ reserves. By end of play, 79 per cent of reserved cars had sold, though only 43 per cent sold within their pre-sale estimate bands. Some 15 per cent sold went for below their guide prices, only after the auction house and/or vendors had accepted whatever was on the table. Among them, a 1962 Jaguar E-type 3.8 roadster S1, hammered away for £19k less than the lower estimate and a 1981 DeLorean DMC12 for £14,000 less than sought. By contrast, 21 per cent of cars sold out-performed their forecasts, including a 1972 BMW 3.0 CSL which went for £134,200, over £9000 more than had been suggested, and a 1997 Bentley Turbo R lwb that overtook the top estimate by £16,000 including premium.
‘The percentage sold is the most accurate statistic for assessing market reality’