Quentin Willson
on the importance of history in a market favouring popular classics
There’s a tide of classics coming on to the market from private sellers and I’m seeing marked polarisation. The average stuff is either not selling at all or making well below last year’s prices. The well detailed and carefully documented cars are still, for the most part, making decent money and finding willing buyers. You can see this shift clearly across auctions and online ads.
Glinting classics with credible mileages and supporting paperwork attract plenty of watchers, multiple bids and usually sell quickly for predictable money. But demand has trailed off for scruffy, no-history cars or brave projects and you see them advertised again and again with lowered asking prices or reserves.
There’s so much unsold stock out there that buyers, quite rightly, are being particular and taking advantage of the heavy oversupply.
If you’re buying or selling you need to understand how much value the market is now attaching to provenance. The days of guaranteed profits flipping unremarkable cars are long gone and there’s a perceptible softening across all segments. Uncertainty and financial distress are pushing private owners to liquidate their cars and they’re finding it’s tough out there. Anything that needs work, has an unverifiable mileage or scant history just isn’t moving and auctions houses are turning away cars that aren’t well restored or mint and original. This is a deepening of the market correction we’ve been seeing since 2014 but it has started to become more prevalent over the last six months as a weakening in UK disposable income and flat wage growth has begun to bite hard.
When a classic comes with a bulging history file, it’s infinitely more attractive and valuable than one without. And when an indicated low mileage can be supported by a verifiable paper trail, the value of that classic rises. Old cars with a continuously documented lifecycle have become like the genuine, proper barn finds of years ago. They create a buzz among buyers because they have the purity of a provable past. And I’ve never seen such a strong emphasis on supporting paperwork and low mileages as there is right now. The increasing allure of a documented history is the effect of a much more discriminating buyer base. Knowledgeable enthusiasts are making today’s market mood music.
If you look at the classics of 2018 that sold strongly at auction, the vast majority had either carefully documented and photographed restorations or significant past paperwork to support originality.
That means all those who paid too much for mediocre classics are going to have to take a hit. Prices of dog-eared stuff will fall further. This is going to cause ripples, shake confidence and, for some, generate losses. Weight of numbers and slowing demand means ragged, paperless classics are largely unwanted.
Sellers need to be realistic with their expectations and quickly trade out of disaster cars, and buyers need to make sure they choose classics that come with a hefty ring binder of history. Look at the history file before you even look at the car. Provenance is a really dominant market force now. Don’t buy without it.