Quentin Willson
predicts a burst of post-lockdown classic excitement - be ready
As we all edge tentatively towards spring, sunshine and – hopefully – the end of lockdown paralysis, it’s worth reflecting on how our hobby has weathered what was an unprecedented year. Words like ‘amazing’ and ‘remarkable’ don’t seem quite up to the job; I’d say that the resilience of our hobby in 2020 would be best described as downright miraculous. While the wider economy went into slow motion and UK GDP plunged like a Steinway pushed off a tower block, our little world motored along largely unchanged.
Yes, there was a slight hiccup back in March when the world first blinked and auctions prices weakened but it didn’t last much more than a month. By April, new remote-buying online auctions were surprising everybody by how quickly they took off and prices actually perked up. So did sale rates – 70-80 per cent of classics at auction have found new owners over the last year. The new breed of online buyers actually had a galvanising effect on the market, which we’re still seeing now.
What’s even more miraculous is that our sector has expanded. Both the FBHVC and CEBR reckon that we generate between £7.2-£8.7bn of economic activity and create 113,000 direct and indirect jobs. The number of enthusiasts in the UK has risen by 40 per cent since the last FBHVC survey five years ago. The old car market has defied all expectations – and then some – set against a wider global economy that the World Bank says has shrunk by five per cent… the most in 150 years.
I mention all this because if the last 12 months are anything to go by, the market will become even more chipper when things do get back to normal. I can see a celebratory upswing as we walk towards the light, grasping our changed priorities. Confidence would, understandably, have taken years to return had our market crashed and burned then. But because it didn’t and things proved so miraculously bullet-proof I expect 2021 to be a year of frantic old car activity. All those months of pent-up polishing will explode into roads blooming with colourful classics like wildflowers after rain.
But until that day dawns, there are old cars currently for sale that may not stay so temptingly priced for much longer. You can buy decent V12 E-type coupés for £40k, Bentley S2s for £30k, Rolls-royce Shadow IIS for £10k, restored Jag Mk2s for £25k, MGBS for £7k and run-forever W123 Mercs for £6k. Who knows what a return to semi-normality will do to prices? I don’t imagine for a minute that they’ll go down. And if we’ve learnt anything about our hobby over the last year it’s that affordable classic cars have proved stable, resilient and safe as an asset class.
So the next couple of months could be prime buying time if you’re waiting to take the plunge because the appeal of old cars will blossom as soon as all of those concours, races, rallies, shows and events start happening again. I really do think that the escapist nature of our hobby will become even more important in a postcovid world. Buying something wisely now at today’s reasonable prices means that you’ll be able to bask in a summer of old car joy for virtually no cost. Bring it on.