OPTIMISM FOR RECORD-BREAKING CLASSIC MARKET
Following a busy 2023 in the oldcar industry, The Classic Valuerʼs annual review has found more cars selling at extreme ends of the market, but with lower sellthrough rates, while a survey of 500 enthusiasts suggests that most are optimistic about the future.
According to the analystʼs data, the number of collector vehicles at auction climbed by 89% between 2019 and 2023, with the dramatic rise of online platforms cited as the main driver. This doesnʼt include an unknown quantity of cars sold by the expanding private-sales arms recently introduced by auction houses such as RM Sothebyʼs and Gooding & Co.
Further analysis has found that, while the greatest number of cars sold (32%) are in the £10,001-25k bracket, itʼs actually the sub-£10k and £100k+ lots that increased in volume the most during 2023 – by as much as 14.7%. Curiously, growth of £1million-plus lots was meanwhile flat at 0.4%, perhaps marking a plateau for volumes that have doubled over 10 years.
Sell-through rates are down by about 1% each year, too, The Classic Valuer reports. As volumes increase, there appear to be not quite enough buyers to account for all of the cars on sale. In 2023, the average sell-through rate was 67%, below the previous low point of 68% set in 2020. An important caveat pointed out is the increase in no-reserve lots; the sell-through rate of collector cars offered in 2023 with a reserve was 57%.
The data aggregator has also consulted more than 500 classic enthusiasts to add a gauge of more subjective feelings about the marketʼs future. Only 24% thought that prices would fall and 48% expected them to rise, while 57% said they were generally optimistic about the future of the hobby. ʻRegulation and policyʼ was considered to be the biggest concern for 47% of respondents.
The backdrop is one peppered with countless auction records, not just for individual cars but also the sales and events themselves. From 20-28 January 2024, Barrettjackson enjoyed its greatest-ever fixture, with a $207.6m haul at Scottsdale, while last yearʼs Amelia Island sale from 2-4 March fetched a record $178m altogether and Monterey Car Weekʼs $396.7m from 17-19 August wasnʼt far off its 2022 all-time best of $472.8m.