Those damn statistics
The England team for tomorrow’s Test match against Pakistan has been selected under new criteria. Roderick Easdale isn’t entirely convinced
The england squad for the first Test of the two-match series against Pakistan, which starts tomorrow at Lord’s, is the first to be chosen by new national selector ed Smith. he was appointed to bring more statistical analysis to selection, but this team seems a satire on such a notion.
Smith has three england caps and a double first from Cambridge, but, like many other journalists who cover the national team —he’s been a member of Test Match Special for the past few years—he also has a reputation for having rarely attended county cricket in recent years. his two spells as a county captain, of Kent and Middlesex, were marked by dressing-room unrest and criticism of his man-management. he’ll soon be at the hub of a still-being-created three-man selection committee with about a dozen scouts feeding their views into this body.
england’s Director of Cricket Andrew Strauss has explained the changes: ‘Our talent identification and selection structure are about getting better quality information and making decision-making as clear and robust as possible. Smith has a strong academic interest in high performance and excellent knowledge of the international game. he will help implement a structure that we hope can become world leading, not just in cricket, but in sport generally.’
It was always likely that Smith would wish to produce a wildcard pick from the outset and it was Buttler. england’s whiteball vice-captain Jos Buttler, 27, is a worldclass limited-overs player, but his skills haven’t transferred to Test cricket.
In 18 Tests, his top score is 85, made in his first-ever innings. he has played no county cricket this year, as he’s been appearing in the Indian Premier League. Indeed, he rarely plays red-ball cricket now—last season he played six innings, which brought a total of 103 runs; he’s made only four centuries in 81 first-class matches.
Buttler’s recall is based on a belief that someone so outrageously talented at one form of the game must eventually crack the other one. england’s white-ball captain, eoin Morgan, another supremely gifted shortform cricketer, failed to cross over to Test cricket successfully and the selectors have long since given up looking for a Test player in him.
If Smith’s bold decision comes off, he will deserve great praise. If it doesn’t, someone may remind him of the saying attributed to einstein that ‘doing the same thing repeatedly and expecting different results is the definition of insanity’.
Buttler replaces James Vince, who has run out of lives, despite making 76 in his last Test innings and scoring an unbeaten double century for hampshire the day before the selectors met, but Mark Stoneman, who has not got beyond 60 in any of his 18 Test innings and this season has a top score of 29 in seven knocks for Surrey, is retained.
‘I wouldn’t read too much into analytics,’ said Smith when announcing his selections. ‘I am interested in it—all sports at the cutting edge look to find the most useful insights—but it doesn’t mean you do away with cricketing judgement.’
Pakistan have been rebuilding their side following the retirements of two batting stalwarts in Misbah-ul-haq and Younis Khan. Pakistan’s last series in england was the drawn one in 2016, which took them top of the Test rankings; now they’re in seventh, two places below england.
Pakistan’s 16-man party for the tour, which included Ireland’s inaugural Test match, won by Pakistan by five wickets, contained five uncapped players. ‘The World Cup next year is in england, so we called up several young players,’ explains Pakistan chief selector Inzamam-ul-haq. ‘This is a great opportunity, particularly for our batsmen, to gain experience in these conditions.’
home advantage should again prove decisive in this series. england have a formidable recent record at home: this century they’ve won 25 home Test series and lost only five, whereas their concurrent overseas record is of more series losses than wins.
A reason for this is that cricket in england is a different ball game, quite literally. The handmade Dukes ball in england behaves differently from machine-made Kookaburra ones used elsewhere in the world, as they retain their hardness and shine for longer and have a more prominent seam. This makes it easier for bowlers to get bounce and lateral movement and the typical english seamer feels at home, in all senses, with such a product.
It was always likely Ed Smith would produce a wildcard pick and it was Buttler