We shall all be changed

ONLY one subject dominates the news as the appalling humanitarian catastrophe of Ukraine unfolds on our screens. All wars are brutal, but the fact that this one is happening on the edge of Europe gives it an immediacy not felt since 1945. There are few Second World War veterans still alive and subsequent generations have come to think of that war as a distant episode of history, which could never be repeated.

Peace and prosperity no longer seem so assured. Not only will Britain receive large numbers of Ukrainian refugees, whose reception must be as generous as possible, but the conflict will have obvious consequences for our comparatively featherbedded living standards. Fuel costs are likely to cause an unwelcome economic shock after the billions spent on Covid. The oil crisis of 1973 provides a dismal precedent: the dragon of inflation, which appeared slain by the Thatcher government, may return, with industrial unrest, as workers attempt to protect their wages, riding on its tail. The effects will be particularly apparent in the countryside where cars are an inescapable fact of existence. Fracking could become an unpalatable necessity.

Yet it would be wrong to despair. The Ukrainians’ bravery has shown that ordinary people are prepared to fight heroically against daunting odds for their way of life —the Western way of life based on the freedom brought by democracy. The course of the war has demonstrated its superiority: the mighty Russian army has shown itself to be inept, not least because, under a dictatorship, only good news can be relayed to the man at the top. Even the Russian hackers seem to have been outplayed by Ukrainian cyber warriors, who have succeeded in jamming the Russians’ communications systems, forcing commanders to rely on vulnerable mobile phones. Hence the dreadful sight of cities being flattened by artillery, as they were in the First World War.

More broadly, Putin has underestimated the West’s response. As China’s secrecy over Covid revealed the threat it poses, so the invasion of Ukraine has caused the West to come to its senses and unite. Whatever the superficial divisions typified by Brexit, we have rediscovered a common identity in serious times.

Eventually, the time will come when Ukraine can be rebuilt. In the process, the old Soviet apartment blocks that have been reduced to rubble will be replaced by handsomely planned towns and newly equipped industries, funded by Western capital, will outperform those of its bullying neighbour.