BREXIT WARNING FOR JOBS AND WAGES

SECRET IMPACT REPORT HIGHLIGHTS ECONOMIC DAMAGE IN COV

BREXIT impact assessments that the Government tried to keep secret reveal the West Midlands will suffer massive economic damage when the UK leaves the EU.

The shocking verdicts show that people in Coventry and the the rest of the West Midlands can look forward to fewer jobs and lower wages as the region, with its manufacturing industries, would be harder hit than most other parts of the UK.

The North East is the one part of the UK where that would suffer even more.

Our region’s economy will shrink by eight per cent if we leave with a trade deal in place, according to the Government’s own analysis.

And the analysis warns that the West Midlands’ economic output will be cut by a whopping 13 per cent if Brexit happens without a deal - which the Government has said it wants to avoid but will not rule out.

The analysis shows the impact of leaving the EU over 15 years compared to what would happen to the UK economy if Brexit didn’t take place.

Information first emerged at the end of January, when details were obtained by website Buzzfeed.

MPs were then permitted to see the Government’s analysis in “a confidential reading room” - and more details have now been leaked to the media.

Sky News and the BBC both separately published the regional breakdown. They have still not been published officially, and government policy is that they should remain confidential.

The analysis shows that Brexit would mean the West Midlands economy shrank by 2.5 per cent even if the UK remained a member of the Single Market. This “best-case scenario” appears unlikely, as both Labour and the Conservative government insist that Brexit must involve leaving the single market.

The BBC reports that the UK car industry’s GDP would shrink by one per cent if the UK remained in the EU single market, but would lose eight per cent if there was a free trade agreement and 8.5 per cent if the UK left without a deal and went to World Trade Organisation rules.

Earlier this month, the boss of Jaguar Land Rover told Prime Minister Theresa May that tens of thousands of jobs will be at risk if she gets Brexit wrong.

Ralf Speth, chief executive of JLR, said: “We are absolutely firmly committed to the UK, it’s our home.

“But a hard Brexit will cost Jaguar Land Rover more than £1.2 billion a year - it’s horrifying, wiping our profit, destroying investment in the autonomous, zero-emissions, we want to share.”

But a former Conservative minister claimed JLR’s boss was “making it up”. Former shadow minister Sir Bernard Jenkin accused Ralf Speth of scaremongering.

The latest row broke out after Jaguar Land Rover revealed plans for a three-day week at its Castle Bromwich plant in Birmingham in the runup to Christmas.

Liberal Democrats said the analysis strengthened the case for holding a second referendum on Brexit.

Tom Brake, Liberal Democrat Brexit Spokesperson, said: “This is a damning outlook for the West Midlands. The Tories are putting everything on the line because they do not care about the lives and livelihoods of the people of the Midlands.”

Brexit impact on UKAcross the UK as a whole, leaving the EU with a deal would hit GDP by five per cent. Brexit without a free trade deal would shrink the UK economy by eight per cent, and staying in the single market would mean the economy was reduced by two per cent.

Under every scenario, London would be the region hurt the least.

Prime Minister Theresa May has chaired the first of two key Brexit meetings with senior ministers as the government attempts to clarify its position.

The Brexit cabinet committee is to sketch out what the future relationship between the UK and EU might look like.

As the Commons has been promised a vote on any deal with the EU, and EU institutions will also need to approve it, some sort of agreement is likely to be needed by October.

But at this stage it seems the Government still hasn’t decided what sort of agreement it wants, leaving little time for negotiations.

Mrs May vowed to be “robust” in Brexit talks after Brussels released papers showing it wants to put in place a method to rapidly curtail the UK’s single market benefits if it breaches agreements on a transition deal.