Clues point to a watered-down Brexit outcome
HOSE clues add up to a package that will disappoint many Brexiteers including a significant number of her MPs. Many Tory Eurosceptics have insisted that British taxpayers should not pay a single euro cent to Brussels beyond existing financial commitments as a fee for leaving the EU while several, including the former Tory Cabinet minister Iain Duncan Smith, believe the UK is due a refund after years of contributing to the EU asset portfolio.
Any sign of backsliding on immigration will also go down badly. “There is no sign of any real plan from Number 10 for cutting EU immigration any time soon,” one Eurosceptic minister told me.
Mrs May appears to be gambling that most Tories will grudgingly accept a multibillion exit fee and continuing open-door EU migration for the foreseeable future as long as the overarching Brexit aim of returning sovereignty from Brussels to Westminster is delivered. Yet she must be aware that some hardened Eurosceptics will see such a deal as a betrayal.
CONCERN is growing among ministers that Mrs May relies on too small a circle of advisers and allies to take on the challenge of delivering Brexit. “Things are looking a bit clunky. She needs more support,” the minister said.
Whitehall insiders admit the Government was taken completely by surprise when the issue of Gibraltar’s future was included in the Brexit proposals issued by Brussels this week, provoking an inflammatory diplomatic row with Spain.
The lack of foresight is being seen as an example of the Prime Minister’s team being overstretched. Ministers complain that not enough civil servants are being recruited quickly enough in the Whitehall departments charged with the EU exit process.
At present Mrs May’s calm and decisive handling of the beginning of the Article 50 departure process has kept her MPs united. Some argue she needs to do more to build alliances across the party now to prepare for potential party fissures when the full details of her proposed Brexit deal emerge.
Her broad coalition of support across the party is bound to fray at the edges if the most dedicated Brexiteers are disappointed by her deal. Mrs May could end up having to turn to some Cluedo-style detective work to try to identify suspects plotting a political assassination.