Ross Clark

Park, would have had their money on fresh-faced Tim Farron being forced out of his job little more than six months later?

Going back rather further, it would have taken a brave soul in 1981, when Mrs Thatcher was under huge pressure in the face of riots and a deep recession, to predict that she would go on as prime minister for another nine years and establish herself as one of the most dominant reformers in modern British history. In politics, sometimes the least likely outcome is what actually happens.

For Theresa May to earn the right to fight the next election, she will need a triumph. And there is a rather obvious one awaiting her if she can seize it: a good deal out of Brexit.

There seems to be a widespread assumption on the part of Remain voters – and among some who voted Leave – that the Brexit negotiations are going badly. It is an impression that has been generated mostly by the bluster of Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator.

He chose from the outset to play hardball, to refuse so much as to talk about a free trade deal before Britain agreed to pay his outrageous and speculative leaving bill. That has left David Davis and his

BARNIER seems to think that a trade deal is some kind of gift to Britain, whereas of course it is in the mutual interest of most people in Europe. If anything, given Britain’s trade gap with other EU countries – they sold to us last year £70billion more goods and services than we sold to them – businesses elsewhere in Europe have an even greater incentive to do a deal than we do.

Barnier isn’t going to shift so at some point it will be up to Theresa May to play the stateswoman and appeal over his head to the governments and businesses of the EU – look, we want to do business and but for your chief negotiator we would be able to do it.

If Theresa May can deliver open trade with the EU without paying an outrageous bill, it will be a political and personal triumph which not even her most bitter opponents will be able to take away from her.

If the economy continues to grow well, defying the doommongers who are still hoping for some kind of Brexit recession, and if her Government can make a start establishing stronger economic relations with countries outside the EU, Theresa May won’t just have seen off her critics, she will have become one of our great prime ministers.

This of course is only one possible version of the future. Another has the Prime Minister facing some kind of embarrassment and failing to survive this year’s party conference. But there is nothing inevitable about the early political demise for which some believe she is destined.

I am minded to think that any surprises in her political fortunes are more likely to be on the upside.

‘Things can change quickly in politics’