Rebel MPs must not bring down the Government
FOR those who relish parliamentary drama, there has not been such a week since the dying days of the Callaghan Labour government at the end of the long Winter of Discontent in 1979. A leader with no majority is hanging on grimly, suffering defeat after defeat as her authority drains away.
On Tuesday, there is a chance that Theresa May could surpass even Jim Callaghan’s biggest defeat – by 108 votes as MPs supported an opposition motion demanding that the basic rate of income tax be cut from 34 per cent to 33 per cent.
Currently, there are over 100 Conservative MPs who have indicated that they will vote to reject the Brexit deal. While Commons rebellions have a tendency to melt away at the last moment, with all opposition parties raged against Mrs May, her prospects of winning the vote are very low indeed.
It is understandable why so many Conservatives have vowed to defeat the deal. It is a terrible deal for Britain. As made clear in the Attorney General’s legal advice there is a serious chance that Britain could remain in the purgatory of the backstop for years in the event of trade talks breaking down. That would mean us having to accept any rules on trade and product standards passed by Brussels, but with no say in those rules.
If, for example, the EU signed a trade deal with Japan, we could find ourselves forced to open our markets to Japanese goods but without our whiskyproducers having any improved access to Japanese markets.
GIVEN that no other EU country has a significant whisky industry, what would be the EU’s incentive to include whisky in such a deal?
Yet however much Conservative MPs are determined to vote against the Government on Tuesday, they must not lose sight of the wider political situation. They will have to be extremely careful to make sure that their rebellion does not inadvertently bring down the Government. If it does, it is very clear what would happen next... we would have a general election early in the New Year which, in a wave of public disgust at the apparent shambles in the Conservative Party, could all too easily usher in the most Left-wing government which Britain has ever suffered.
Jeremy Corbyn might seem on the surface a harmless, affable figure, but no-one should be under any illusions about the nature of the government he would lead. It would have far more severe economic consequences than would a no deal Brexit. Already, investment is draining from Britain as wealthy entrepreneurs weigh up the prospect of a Corbyn administration.
In over three years as Labour leader Corbyn has said hardly a positive word about private sector business. Even when he made a speech to the EEF – which represents manufacturing firms – in July he was railing against the “super rich”, damning people who live off “unearned wealth” and promising a financial transaction tax.
Yes, that was wealthy entrepreneurs he was attacking – people who have taken huge risks to set up businesses, creating jobs and providing tax revenues in the process, and who might not unreasonably expect to enjoy their success without it being confiscated by a Labour government.
It wasn’t just the wealthy he was attacking; it was ordinary shareholders, too – people of modest means who have been trying to build up a decent pension for their retirement. It is they who would be hit hardest by a financial transaction tax and Corbyn’s threat to seize 10 per cent of companies’ share capital in order to set up a fund for workers.
It would be ordinary people, too, who would suffer from shadow chancellor John McDonnell’s threat to introduce a wealth tax. In the past he has supported the idea of imposing a 20 per cent tax on the wealth – not just income from that wealth – of the richest 10 per cent of the population. That wouldn’t just hit billionaires. It would hit anyone with personal assets of over about £700,000 – namely anyone who owns a modest terraced house in London. Moreover, a pension fund of £700,000 is only enough to pay a pension of around £30,000 a year.
T‘It would be ordinary people who suffer’
HE global superwealthy won’t have nearly so much to fear. They can easily take their wealth abroad. But a Corbyn government would lead to a run on the pound as global investors feared wealth taxes and credit controls. It would further undermine low confidence in stock markets and lead to a brain drain. There has never been a time when there was a greater need for Conservatives to unite and defend the interests of our economy. Yet ironically it has coincided with a period of unusually strong bickering within the party.
If Theresa May loses her vote on Tuesday it will be essential for Conservatives to draw together and show confidence in the Government. They do have one thing on their side. The DUP has indicated that it will support the Government if Labour brings a no-confidence motion in the wake of the vote.
Interestingly, the DUP has made no such promise if the Prime Minister wins her vote – and has even suggested it would withdraw its support for the Government in such circumstances. That leads to the paradox that the Government’s chances of survival might actually be higher if Tuesday’s vote is lost. But Tory MPs will have to maintain very close discipline and do nothing to threaten the Government’s survival. They should remember what happened to Labour when Jim Callaghan lost his vote of no confidence in 1979 – the party ended up being out of office for 18 years, and only a few of Callaghan’s MPs would see power again.