What do PMs fear the most? Events, dear boy, events
ABOUT the only thing that can safely be said about politics is that it is unpredictable. Most pundits expected Margaret Thatcher’s first term to be dominated by set-piece battles with the trade unions. In fact it is remembered for a little-known British territory in the South Atlantic being invaded by a Latin American despot. Struggles with the unions had to wait until the second term.
David Cameron anticipated being a jolly prime minister who could “let sunshine win the day” and sprinkle around public spending liberally in order to win for the Tories a new reputation as cuddly nice guys. In fact he found himself imposing years of austerity in a bid to rescue the public finances.
And we all knew that 2020 was going to be the year in which Boris Johnson’s fortunes would be determined by the shape of the final Brexit terms he agreed with the EU in future relationship talks, didn’t we?
Wrong, wrong and wrong again. As Harold Macmillan once put it, “events, dear boy, events” are the most likely source of the central challenges any prime minister will face.
The invasion of the Falkland Islands, the aftermath of the financial crisis and now the coronavirus are things that come crashing uninvited into the corridors of power to test the mettle of prime ministers.
EACH one is an example of why being PM is such a difficult job. Rare is the prime minister who can just keep a steady hand on the wheel and let the ship of state sail serenely onwards. Stormy weather is seldom far away.
The key is that any occupant of 10 Downing Street must be able to rise to the challenges when they come. Necessary qualities include the ability to take good decisions in a fastmoving environment, communicate them effectively and rally the country behind them. Thatcher daringly assembled a military task force to take back the Falklands. Her popularity soared as it set sail and soared further still when it accomplished its mission. Cameron sold enough of the idea that when it came to austerity we were “all in it together” to win a majority in 2015.
Boris Johnson may have thought that reaching a new Withdrawal Agreement with the EU – confounding the predictions of pundits – and then securing a hefty Commons majority in December’s snap election would be followed by less choppy waters.
Yet now he finds himself chairing emergency meetings of the exciting-sounding COBRA, an acronym for the committee which gathers in the less exciting-sounding Cabinet Office Briefing Room A to work out a strategy for getting through this major public health crisis. These are the earliest of early days, but it must be “so far, so good”. On Tuesday, the PM handled a Downing Street press conference with aplomb. He and his unflappable Health Secretary Matt Hancock have calmly explained the complex coping strategy the Government has devised with clarity.
So far the number of confirmed cases in Britain is lower than in comparable countries, such as France and Germany. The plan to try to contain the outbreak, while preparing the public for more drastic responses to slow down its spread, seems sound.
Most of us have already discerned the fundamentals – we can do our bit by keeping calm and carrying on, but also washing our hands thoroughly with soap and hot water several times a day.
If we can ensure our pandemic – if that is what it becomes – happens gradually, then the NHS will be far better able to cope with acute cases, the economy will suffer much less and warmer summer weather, or indeed a vaccine protecting against Covid-19, may arrive to save the day.
IT IS my hunch that Britain is going to come quite high up the league table of countries that best cope, seeing fewer deaths and a less drastic economic impact too.
As the Prime Minister said, our NHS really is a fantastic resource in that it can be directed to prioritise fighting the crisis much more readily than can the more fragmented and privately-run healthcare systems of many other countries. We also have an impressive depth of scientific expertise to call upon.
The national disposition is not to panic but to pull together in tough times. Having a good communicator with a can-do spirit at the helm will hopefully encourage us all to keep this thing in proportion.
It is, of course, easy for me to assert all this as I am not the one in the hot seat. By early summer, we will doubtless have learned much more about the qualities of the one who is.
‘Britain is going to come high up the league table for coping best’