Boris must show he’s in charge to retain our trust
AS THE political fallout from the coronavirus pandemic continues, it is impossible not to be struck by the uncanny parallels between Boris Johnson’s embattled Government and John Major’s beleaguered administration back in 1992.
Only five months ago the Conservatives won a surprisingly large victory, garnering 14 million votes at the ballot box. It was their fourth general election triumph in a row. Years of consolidation and progress appeared to beckon, with Labour now consigned to the wilderness.
This was the same prospect that John Major seemed certain to enjoy after his surprise win in April 1992. Backed up by 14 million votes, his defeat of Neil Kinnock was the Tories’ fourth successive electoral triumph.
But suddenly, after just five months, the skies darkened for Major. Against the backdrop of a worsening economy, Britain was humiliatingly forced out of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism on 16 September 1992, an event that became known as Black Wednesday because of the damage it inflicted on the Government’s credibility.
THEN in October a plan to close a third of Britain’s coal mines with the loss of 31,000 jobs caused outrage. Forced to dilute the scheme, Major’s gove rnment looked weak and incoherent.
His problems were magnified by the election of John Smith as Labour leader in place of the ineffectual Kinnock. A reassuring lawyer whose sharp mind was matched by his air of integrity, Smith immediately put the Prime Minister on the defensive.
Major never recovered and, in 1997, was beaten in one of the biggest landslides in history.
Today Boris Johnson’s Government has taken a battering for its management of the Covid-19 emergency, with ministers under fire over everything from the neglect of care homes to inconsistencies in the lockdown.
Their troubles have been made greater by the elevation of lawyer Sir Keir Starmer to the Labour leadership. A more substantial figure than his predecessor Jeremy Corbyn, Sir Keir has already galvanised the Opposition with his forensic attacks on the Government.
Tory woes have been deepened by the row over the “flexible” approach to the lockdown shown by Downing Street strategist Dominic Cummings, amid accusations of hypocrisy. The media hysteria has certainly had an impact. According to the latest opinion poll at the weekend, the Tory lead over Labour has fallen to just four points, from 26 points in late March. And Boris Johnson’s approval ratings have sunk to minus nine, whereas Sir Keir Starmer’s have risen to plus 18.
Yet there is nothing inevitable about the continuation of this decline. Political recovery can certainly be achieved if ministers reassert their authority. John Major sank ever deeper into the quagmire of division and decay because he was too enfeebled to take charge. But Johnson, a much bigger politician than Major, can avoid that fate. He could make a start by improving his own performance, bringing back the swashbuckler who won the December election. At the Commons Liaison Committee last week, he came across as irritable and disjointed.
“Boris is simply not operating as Boris,” says one Cabinet source. Well, for the sake of his Government, he must return to his previous energising form. And he should impose his discipline on his Parliamentary party, as he did during the Brexit saga last autumn.
ON THE policy front, he should get an immediate grip on the handling of Covid and rebuild a reputation for competence. That means ironing out the glitches in the new test-and-trace system, as well as abandoning the plan to impose quarantine on all travellers to Britain, which will cost us an estimated £650million a week while doing nothing to combat the virus.
Indeed, firing up the ravaged economy must be a priority now the lockdown is easing. As businesses re-open, the emphasis will have to switch from job subsidies such as the furlough scheme to support for enterprise through rates relief, corporation tax cuts and infrastructure improvements.
John Major presided over endless splits in his party on Europe. Boris Johnson can achieve the opposite by sticking to his guns on Brexit. The road back to unity and popularity lies in standing up to EU threats over a lengthy transition period or lopsided trade deal.
Much of the current hostility towards the Government is unfair, given the unprecedented nature of the Covid crisis. But then, as Major himself once remarked: “Politics is a rough old trade.” It is up to the Tories to prove their critics wrong.
‘Bring back the swashbuckler who won December’s election’