Transmission plunged after the lockdown, says study
CORONAVIRUS transmission in England dropped significantly in the month before lockdown was eased, the largest infection survey has revealed.
Testing of 120,000 volunteers aged over five found the R value – how many people each patient infects – averaged 0.57 in May, far lower than earlier estimates.
Imperial College London (ICL) randomly selected participants regardless of whether they had symptoms. It found the rate of infection was halving every eight to nine days in May, and there were 13 positive cases for every 10,000 people.
Health Secretary Matt Hancock said the study “will help us better understand the spread, predict how it may spread in the future and inform our response. It shows the impact our lockdown efforts have had and demonstrates we have taken the right actions at the right time.”
But he added: “We mustn’t take our foot off the pedal.”
About 69 per cent of those who tested positive reported no symptoms on the day of the test or the previous week, though they may have had them later.
Prof Steven Riley, an infectious diseases expert at ICL, said: “The relatively low R value emphasised that the UK’s
level of adherence [to the lockdown] was very effective.”
The study showed people aged 18-24 were most likely to test positive, and over-65s the least. People of Asian ethnicity and healthcare workers were also more likely to be infected.
Meanwhile, some coronavirus survivors are suffering from long-term health problems such as chronic fatigue, Mr Hancock said. Doctors in Italy and the UK warned that patients are left with lung scarring, mobility issues and heart problems.
Mr Hancock said he was worried by the evidence. He said: “I am concerned – thankfully not for me, I’m fine – that a significant minority have long-term impacts and it can be debilitating.”
He also praised efforts to crackdown on transmission in Blackburn, where extra restrictions were imposed following a spike in infections.