Infections now down by a third
ENGLAND’S second lockdown has pushed infections back to levels seen in early October – but they could quickly rise again, scientists have warned.
Results from Imperial College London’s React study showed cases fell almost a third during November.
But experts warned the progress could be lost in the run- up to Christmas and urged people to stick to the rules after lockdown ends tonight.
Steven Riley, professor of infectious disease dynamics, said: “We found evidence there was a decline in the pattern during lockdown, but that prevalence still remains high at about one in 100. We’ve moved back to levels of infection last seen in mid to the beginning of October – we’ve gone back, in epidemic time, around six weeks.
“But we’ve also seen at other points during the epidemic how it is possible to rebound more rapidly through that range of prevalence.
“So it is essential that we maintain effective control after the lockdown ends and until we can suppress the virus to much lower levels.”
A further 205 deaths were announced, similar to last week’s 206.
The Imperial study involved swab tests of around 100,000 people, who were randomly selected to ensure anyone infected without symptoms was also picked up.
It showed around one in every 100 people were infected between November 13 and 24, down from one in 80 between October 26 and November 2.
Infections fell by more than half in the North- west and North- east, with numbers remaining more stable in the West Midlands and London. Prevalence was highest in the West Midlands, with around one in 65 people infected.
Prof Riley said there was evidence that infections were already falling in some Tier 3 areas before national restrictions started, but the lockdown had accelerated this into a “sharp decline”.