We must follow the Christmas rules to avoid surge in infections, expert warns
HOW people behave over Christmas will directly affect how soon the country gets back to normal, a leading scientist has warned.
Professor Sarah Gilbert, who leads work on Oxford University’s coronavirus vaccine, said a surge in infections in the New Year could prolong the epidemic.
She said: “Hopefully we could be more or less back to normal by the summer, but that’s not going to be possible if we’re starting from a very bad position in January.”
Prof Gilbert pointed to the rise in cases in the US after people mixed with families and friends for Thanksgiving.
She told the BBC’s Andrew Marr show yesterday: “There has now been a big surge in infections and they’re seeing 3,000 deaths a day now – the highest rate there has ever been in any country.
“If we have that kind of thing happening over the Christmas holidays in this country, with very high transmission rates then possible in January, it’s going to take so much longer to get things back to normal.”
Mixing
Prof Gilbert was speaking before Public Health England released data showing that Covid case rates are rising in two- thirds of all local areas in England.
A total of 208 out of 315 local authorities recorded a week- on- week increase in infections in the seven days to December 9.
This includes every borough of London, 39 of the 45 local areas in eastern England, and 58 of the 67 local areas in south- east England.
In the North- west, where rates had previously been falling across almost the whole region, the latest figures show they are up in around half of areas ( 19 out of 39).
A total of 18,447 new cases of coronavirus were confirmed across the UK yesterday, along with 144 deaths.
The Government’s data dashboard showed that the number of cases in the past seven days had risen by almost a fifth from the previous week. Prof Gilbert said a rise in infections could disrupt the rollout of the NHS vaccination programme if staff are off sick or patients unable to visit a vaccination centre.
Meanwhile, in a letter to the Prime Minister NHS Providers called for better public debate to ensure people understand the risks of mixing with other households during the five- day relaxation period.
Chief executive Chris Hopson said: “What everybody is focusing on is can I see other people? The question people should be asking themselves is should I?”
Tough decisions are due to be made this week when the tier system is reviewed, with the capital thought to be on the brink of moving into Tier 3.
Manchester could be downgraded to Tier 2.
The London borough of Havering now has the fifth highest rate of new Covid cases in England. A total of 1,314 new cases were recorded in Havering in the seven days to December 9, up sharply from 834 new cases in the previous seven days. Along with Havering, five other London boroughs are now in the top 25 highest rates.
Schools in Greenwich, south- east London, will close from tonight after “exponential growth”, the council said. A statement from council leader Danny Thorpe said: “We now have the highest rates of infec
tion in Greenwich than at any time since March.”
Photos of crowded streets bustling with Christmas shoppers or revellers enjoying a night on the town have sparked alarm in many Tier 2 cities, including the capital, York and Liverpool.
Mr Hopson warned that relaxing coronavirus restrictions could trigger a devastating third wave of infections.
He urged “extreme caution” in decisions to move any area to a lower tier and said areas that need to be moved into Tier 3 must do so without delay.
He added that hospitals are entering the busiest period of the year with 10,000 fewer beds in operation – around a tenth of the total – due to infection control measures.
A further 13,000 beds are occupied by Covid- 19 patients, up from just 500 at the beginning of September.
Mood
He said the mood among hospital leaders had changed over the past fortnight, and many were now expecting operational pressures to be greater, and to arrive earlier, than anticipated.
Foreign Secretary Dominic
Raab said the Christmas break would go ahead. “I think people do need that window… at a mental health level and an emotional level, people do need it.”
Meanwhile, deliveries of the Pfizer/ BioNTech vaccine will arrive at GP practices across the country today.
Some will kick off vaccinations this afternoon, with the majority starting tomorrow.
Nurses, paramedics, pharmacists and other NHS staff will work alongside GPs at local centres to vaccinate those aged 80 and over, as well as care home workers and residents. More than 100 locations are joining the programme now and more will join in phases through December.
Professor Martin Marshall, chair of the Royal College of GPs, said patients would be contacted when it was their turn and urged people not to call their practices enquiring about vaccination.
Germany has announced it will step up lockdown rules over Christmas after the number of deaths and infections reached record levels.
Schools and non- essential shops will close from Thursday, plus other businesses. The lockdown will run until January 10.