Britain will bounce back as soon as we are free of Covid
ADISMAL year is ending on a miserable note. The festive period had offered the prospect of relief from the grim cycle of crisis. Now those hopes have been dashed as draconian new restrictions are imposed on most of the country.
Lockdown is back with a vengeance. In effect, Boris Johnson is the first national leader since the Puritan Oliver Cromwell in the 17th century to curtail the public’s celebration of Christmas by official edict.
The Government claims it had no alternative to this decision because the disease is spreading so rapidly, driven by a mutant strain of Covid which scientists fear is 70 per cent more contagious than the previous version.
Yet, despite the painful setback, the gloom could soon be lifted. For all the current distress at the cancellation of Christmas, there are signs that this may be the last cruel roar of the disease. It may seem hard to believe in the depths of midwinter, but within months Britain could be heading back to normality, with our freedoms returned, our economy revitalised, our health rebuilt, and our independence regained.
The chief catalyst for recovery will be the vaccination programme, which has the potential both to protect the public and eradicate the virus.
REASSURINGLY, the latest research on the mutated strain indicates that it is not resistant to the new Covid vaccines, which have proved remarkably effective in trials. Having been the first country to grant approval to the use of the Pfizer product, Britain now leads the world in the roll- out of immunisation.
Unlike the mismanaged supply of protective gear and the botched testing regime, the distribution of the anti- Covid jabs appears to be well- organised, under the leadership of experienced minister Nadhim Zahawi. As of yesterday 500,000 people had already received the vaccine, representing “a really good start”, according to Zahawi. This week GPs will start administering doses directly in care homes, a welcome expansion in shielding the most vulnerable.
But the programme will shift up several gears if, as seems likely, the Oxford/ AstraZeneca vaccine is formally approved before the end of the month. This will be a vital step, given that the Oxford jab is not only cheaper to produce but also easier to store and transport because it can be kept at normal fridge temperatures.
Other vaccines will soon follow, giving the NHS an arsenal of weaponry against the virus. Even without mass vaccination of the entire population, once the high- risk groups are protected, rates of mortality could be cut dramatically. Deputy Chief Medical Officer Jonathan Van- Tam says a successful first phase of the roll- out “could in theory take out 99 per cent of hospitalisations and deaths related to Covid- 19”.
Such a triumph will both enable the Government to lift social restrictions and fuel the British economy, which has already proved far more resilient through the crisis than most experts predicted.
Earlier this month, the regular survey of purchasing managers showed a renewed expansion of activity in manufacturing and services, while retail sales remain steady and the property market is buoyant. At the same time, interest rates and inflation are at record lows.
Moreover, once Covid has disappeared, there could be a consumer boom created by the release of pent- up demand. During the lockdowns, families are estimated to have each saved on average £ 7,100, putting away almost £ 200billion. That money could be at the heart of an unprecedented bounce- back. In fact the research group Oxford Economics forecasts that in 2021 the UK will grow faster than any other major developed economy.
The pro- EU brigade argue that the chances of such growth will be ruined by Brexit, especially if there is no trade deal in the coming days.
BUT this gospel of doom could prove as false as the rest of Project Fear. Freed from the shackles of EU rule, Britain could flourish on the international stage, helped by our flexible labour market, cultural influence and gift for innovation.
Contrary to Europhile gripes about isolation, Britain has already concluded 58 free- trade agreements, including one with Mexico last week. It is estimated that over the next 30 years, 90 per cent of global growth will occur outside the stagnant EU.
Competitive, sovereign Britain can take advantage of that trend, just as we could lower food prices when liberated from the Common Agricultural Policy and revive our fishing communities when we take back control of our waters.
The valley might seem dark now but the journey has begun to the sunlit uplands.
‘ Freed from the EU shackles, we could flourish internationally’