Experts believe we CAN avoid third wave EVENTS BRING HOPE
A DEADLY third wave of Covid that scientists feared could kill up to 20,000 people may now never hit the UK, experts have said.
The Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) had warned another wave of infections could lead to a fresh disaster later this summer.
But with two thirds of Britain’s adult population having now received their first vaccination, fresh projections due to go before ministers in the coming days will paint a decidedly more upbeat and optimistic picture.
And as Covid cases and deaths have plummeted to levels last seen at the end of last summer, experts now believe the risk of a third virus wave has diminished to the point where it may not happen.
Professor Adam Kucharski of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, who works on modelling provided to Sage, welcomed the latest real-world data on vaccine effectiveness. And while he conceded the easing of restrictions will inevitably increase transmission, he delivered a more upbeat message on the effects of unlocking.
Prof Kucharski said: “There was considerable uncertainty about the impact of vaccines earlier this year, but recent studies are landing at the more optimistic end of the scale.
“We could still see some increase in transmission as things reopen, but the resulting impact could be relatively low.”
Fresh models, to be presented before more Covid restrictions are due to be eased on May 17, will show the risk is shrinking.
Mathematician and insurance risk manager James Ward, whose own Covid model closely shadows official ones, said: “If you look at where figures were in early April, compared to where they were in early February, they moved a huge distance.
“It’s not very far for them to move now, from predicting an exit wave of 15,000 to 20,000 deaths to predicting an exit wave of zero to 5,000, or maybe nothing at all.”
The last set of Sage projections, published on March 31, had presented ministers with a dilemma.
The models suggested a third wave could kill up to 20,000 people in the late summer if steps three and four of the exit roadmap went ahead as planned.
Those projections are now being revised down rapidly.
The more optimistic forecasts mean ministers are now expected to go ahead with step three on May 17, with the return of indoor household mixing and indoor hospitality.
Covid deaths in the UK fell by a staggering 78 per cent in the past week and just seven fatalities were recorded on Saturday.
The fresh data released last week has allowed Sage scientists to
improve the assumptions that underpin their models.
Most importantly, a Public Health England (PHE) study showed a single dose of a coronavirus vaccine can reduce household transmission by up to half.
Those given a first dose of either the Pfizer or AstraZeneca vaccines – and who became infected three weeks later – were between 38 per cent and 49 per cent less likely to pass the virus on than unvaccinated people, PHE found.
Sage will look at modelling provided by Imperial College London, the University of Warwick and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.
All three provide a range of projections.
In March, scenarios from the Imperial and Warwick models forecast the virus would die off by September if the exit plan was stopped at phase two – but cases would spike again in late summer if phases three and four were implemented.
The London School’s model used a much lower assumption for vaccine effectiveness and projected a third wave as bad or worse than the one that swept Britain in December and January. If the new projections flag up areas of concern, they will probably focus on regional and social differences in suppressing Covid.
Yorkshire, for example, still has relatively high viral transmission and Sage will want to be sure that these differences do not prompt localised spikes.
Mr Ward said ministers would also be keeping a close eye on vaccine uptake among the young.
This is important as the models depend on high uptake if the nation is to reach herd immunity.
He said: “I am optimistic but frankly it would be good to have a little bit of headroom above the herd immunity threshold so that we either don’t have a winter wave or, if we have one, it is moderate.”
Mr Ward said tht one way would be to vaccinate children if jab uptake was low among young adults.