Forget the hysteria and hear the true voice of the people
AFTER the artificial frenzy comes the authentic verdict. In recent days, Westminster has been gripped by hysteria over rows about the redecoration of Boris Johnson’s Downing Street flat and leaks from his office.
But, this week, it is the decisions of the voters that will count rather than the opinions of puffed-up commentators and scheming politicians.
Beyond all the froth about furniture and fall-outs, the ballot box will show what really matters in the governance of our country.
Britain goes to the polls on Thursday in the biggest set of local and regional elections since 1973, with more than 48 million people eligible to vote. At stake will be the positions of more than 5,000 councillors in 143 local authorities, as well as 15 mayors and 39 police commissioners.
In addition, there is also a vital by-election in the Labourheld North East constituency of Hartlepool. Its outcome could help to determine the fate of leader Sir Keir Starmer, whose lacklustre performance is fuelling discontent on both the Left and the Right of his party.
BUT on a deeper level, the very future of the union is on the ballot paper, with Plaid Cymru hoping to surge in Wales and the SNP in Scotland seeking a mandate for another independence referendum. A dominant performance by Nicola Sturgeon’s party could signal the start of the United Kingdom’s break-up.
Anxious to stop that historic eventuality in Scotland, the Tories are also looking to advance in parts of England, particularly the North where Labour’s so-called “red wall” has crumbled badly.
In a sense, this optimism is remarkable, since Boris Johnson’s party has been in office for 11 years and governments are usually given a kicking at the local polls mid-term.
But the Conservatives have been bolstered by the success of the Covid vaccine, while in much of England beyond the M25, Brexit and Boris Johnson’s drive to level up the economy have widespread appeal.
It is a success story that should see the re-election of Andy Street as the mayor in the West Midlands and Ben Houchen in Teeside.
Just as glittering a prize would be a victory in Hartlepool, held by Labour since its creation. Only once since the Falklands conflict in 1982 has a governing party gained a seat at a by-election – four years ago at Copeland.
But the local Conservatives are confident they have a solid challenger in Jill Mortimer, a farmer and North Yorkshire councillor. Defending a majority of just 3,595, the Labour candidate Paul Williams is a keen Remainer in strong Brexit territory. Moreover, the Tory campaign has been helped by recent boosts to the local economy, such as the announcement that the Tees is to have Britain’s largest freeport, creating an estimated 18,000 jobs.
A defeat at Hartlepool would be devastating for Labour. It would demonstrate how little progress the party has made under Starmer. Still tainted by the toxic legacy of Jeremy Corbyn, obsessed with the woke agenda, it has nothing convincing to say on the economy, immigration or defence.
The party was once the voice of the British working class. Now it is discordant mix of virtue-signalling, bleats from the trade unions and grievances from the inner cities. That will only be reinforced by inevitable landslide re-election victories for Andy Burnham as Manchester mayor and Sadiq Khan in London. Despite his dismal record on crime and transport, Khan will triumph because, in the words of the great psephologist Sir John Curtice, the capital is now effectively “a one-party state”.
Scotland could be heading in the same direction. The SNP is certain to remain easily the largest party, despite its own recent bitter fall-out between Nicola Sturgeon and her predecessor Alex Salmond, who has created his own separatist party called Alba.
IN SCOTLAND’S complex proportional voting system, it remains unclear how much damage Alba will do to the SNP, though the recent friction – along with concerns about the Scottish economy and a hard border – has certainly undermined popular support for independence.
One poll last week showed 49 per cent now back the Union, compared to 42 per cent for separation. If that mood is reflected in Thursday’s election, the SNP would be deprived of an overall majority.
Thus pressure for a new independence referendum would be massively diminished. For the Government, that could be the biggest win of all.
‘The union is at stake with the SNP seeking another referendum’