Tool that predicts heart risks early will cut death toll from silent killers
A CALCULATOR that predicts people at high risk of heart and blood circulation diseases years before they strike will save thousands of lives, researchers said.
The tool will allow doctors to forecast those at risk of suffering a heart attack or stroke in the next 10 years.
Professor Sir Nilesh Samani, cardiologist and medical director at the British Heart Foundation, said: “Heart and circulatory diseases are the world’s biggest killers, impacting the lives of 7.6 million people across the UK alone.
“This new risk tool is a major advance and will save many more people from developing heart attacks, stroke and heart disease, all of which develop silently over many years and strike without warning.
“It will be the new gold standard for doctors to determine which patients are at the highest risk of these conditions and enable tailored treatment and lifestyle advice to be given much earlier.”
Those flagged up by the calculator – which uses algorithms to predict risk – can be put on personalised preventative treatment, such as statins, or will receive lifestyle advice.
Powerful
Researchers across Europe analysed data from 700,000 participants – mostly middle-aged – to develop the tool.
Participants had no prior history of heart and circulatory disease when they were recruited to the studies.
In the 10 years they were followed up, 30,000 had a “cardiovascular event”, including fatal or non-fatal heart attack or stroke.
The calculator uses known risk factors such as age, sex, cholesterol levels, blood pressure and smoking.
It can predict both fatal and non-fatal conditions.
Researchers say it will better estimate cardiovascular risk among young people and improve how treatment is tailored for older people and those in high-risk regions across Europe.
Professor Emanuele Di Angelantonio, a researcher at the University of Cambridge BHF Centre of Research Excellence, said: “This risk tool is much more powerful and superior than what doctors have used for decades.”
Colleague Dr Lisa Pennells added: “This project has brought together key experts and extensive data sources to develop improved risk prediction tools for cardiovascular disease for use across the UK and Europe.”