Freedom will taste sweeter if we wait just a little longer
THE best way to understand the thinking behind the Prime Minister’s confirmation yesterday that “Freedom Day” is being postponed is to think about marshmallows.
Bear with me.
In a psychology experiment in 1972, children were offered a choice between a marshmallow to eat on the spot, or two marshmallows if they were willing to wait. Researchers then tracked the children over time. Those who were willing to wait for their reward had better outcomes on almost every measure of education and health.
The parallel is, of course, far from exact – no one died as a result of not waiting for more marshmallows, whereas if we do not delay easing the last Covid restrictions, people will. But the relevant point is that, however tempting it may be to take the immediate reward, it makes more sense to wait.
The evidence suggests that most people grasp this. The lat- est poll, by Opinium, found that 54 per cent of us agree that it is better to postpone easing, with only 37 per cent against.
Perhaps that’s because people listened to the Prime Minister when he first set out the roadmap out of lockdown. The phrase he used then, and which ministers have repeated, is that the timing of the different stages of easing would be driven by data, not dates.
IN OTHER words, much as we all wanted June 21 to be the date for the final stage, it was never more than a target.
And the problem is that the data is clear. Last week Covid cases rose by 57 per cent. In some areas they are doubling every four and a half days.
The vaccine programme has been a brilliant success but it has not yet been extensive enough to break the link between a surge in infections and a surge in hospitalisation. In England, for example, the number of Covid-related admissions rose by 32 per cent last week.
The Delta variant – which used to be called the Indian variant – is thought to be 60 per cent more infectious than the Alpha (Kent) variant, and is now responsible for 90 per cent of infections. It is twice as likely to result in infected people being hospitalised.
Those figures are stark and show the scale of the problem as we enter a third wave.
Much of the criticism of the Government’s past handling of the pandemic has, rightly, focused on its delays – both to lockdown last year, and in closing the borders to travellers from India. This time, however, delaying is the safer option.
Imagine the anger if the Government had ignored the figures and went ahead with full easing next Monday, leading to a further surge in infections, deaths and another crisis in our hospitals. Because it’s not just those with Covid who have suffered from the rise in admissions – it is those with illnesses who have been unable to receive treatment.
Arguing that the Government is going out of its way to keep us in a form of lockdown for as long as possible is ridiculous. And then there are those like Lord Sumption, the former Supreme Court judge, who have taken leave of their senses. He said we have no moral duty to obey “wicked” lockdown rules, just as there was no responsibility for “Germans to follow Nazi race laws” – a comparison that says a lot more about Lord Sumption than it does about the lockdown rules.
Sticking with June 21 could have been catastrophic – we could have had to claw back even the easing we have already had in order to stamp down on infections. But by delaying for just a few weeks, the positive impact should be huge.
To date, over 60 per cent of adults have had their first jab and 30 per cent have had both. Most severe cases now are among unvaccinated people or those who have had only one dose. It is estimated that a further 10 million can be vaccinated over the next four weeks.
AND it will give scientists time and evidence to decide if vaccines are indeed breaking the link between infections and hospitalisations. The bad news is that it could still mean 2,000 admissions a day. The good news, however, is that statistics indicate less than five per cent of infections need to be admitted – half the previous rate.
And we are in a far better place than we were in full, wintry lockdown. Many are busy enjoying the heat and giving British hospitality a huge boost, estimated at £22billion.
But the truth of the matter is that we don’t know for certain what would have happened if we had gone ahead with June 21. With the overwhelming weight of scientific opinion, and the data we do have, the only safe option was a delay.
‘Much as we wanted June 21 to happen, it was only ever a target’