One in three

ONE in three people in England will still be susceptible to the Delta variant of Covid on Freedom Day, it is estimated.

Modelling by Government advisers suggests there will have been 15.3 million infections by Monday, giving 27 per cent of the country some natural immunity.

When the impact of vaccines is factored in, around two thirds should have some protection.

Prof Matt Keeling, of the Scientific Pandemic Influenza-Modelling sub-group of advisory body Sage, said: “We would estimate that this leaves about a third of the population still susceptible.

“We expect infection, cases and hospital admissions to keep increasing between now and July 19.” Prof Keeling said modelling the effect of lifting controls was very difficult, due to high levels of uncertainty around key factors.

He said: “We really just do not know how the population is going to react. Keeping the hospital admissions low...really does rely on individual level behaviour and also high vaccine efficacy.

“You almost need to think of this like a spring-like system, and, if you suddenly release it, you get a much, much bigger wave than if you gradually let things change.”

Meanwhile Prof Graham Medley, from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said the summer peak of cases could last six weeks.

He told BBC Radio 4’sToday: “The intention is not to introduce a lockdown for this peak.Then we are going to see a natural peak and that may well be long.”